Highly popular, aging center fielder takes contract concerns up the ying-yang to the Mets front office and finds himself heading to a nice, Spanish styled home off the coasts of San Diego, with nothing but a potential breakout candidate in Xavier Nady to show for. Two years hence, the Mets trade an uber-talented hitting prospect in Lastings Milledge, based partly on flawed analysis but mostly on the club’s hypocritical establishment of normal behavior, taking his posse and brilliantly crafted quotes in return for the bible thumping likes of Ryan Church.
Well, a transparent similarity if I ever saw one; at least in the words of my former colleague and, to be fair, well versed analyst Joe Janish, who, while not outright condemning the trade that sent Milledge packing in late November for Church and catcher Brian Schnedier, seems quote excited at the prospect of watching Ryan Church as the season began earlier today.
Just for the record- since this is just my second post here- the King of the Jews does not particularly mind Ryan Church. He has a solid defensive reputation and has a career OPS. of over .800. Nady, while far from becoming the “formidable” offensive force Joe describes him as, (forget the whole clutch hitting, thing, we are still talking about a league average player here) became a serviceable player in his short stint with the Metropolitans. That does not mean he saw much of an improvement in his numbers from the previous year, where he hit .261/.321/.429 in 326 at-bats with the Pirates back in 2005, given the fact he was 2007. Church will undoubtedly improve his numbers against left-handers next season- regardless of whether his platoon split decreasing is the result of getting more experience or merely a statistical trend- but at twenty-eight years old, (Nady was twenty-seven at the time he joined the Mets) he will likely not see any dramatic increase in his offensive production in 2008. courtesy of Cyril Morong, his research has shown that players generally peak at the age of 27, and their offensive production stays consistent until about the age of thrity-two. Here is the average offensive production, using RCAA, (runs created above average for those six years: 33.46, 33.74, 34.20, 29.94, 30.98, 32.32.
On the other hand, when the Mets dealt Mike Cameron, he would be thirty-three by the start of 2006. According to Morongs work, when a player turns thirty-three, he is expected to see his RCAA drop to 24.78. That was not the case with Cameron, who actually improved his OPS. that year by .16 points, giving him a line of .268/.353/.452. Cameron slightly outperformed Nady that year, posting a .357 w/OBA, compared to Nady’s .333 w/OBA. Cameron’s production suffered the next year, hitting .242/.328/.431, while Nady improved to .278/.330/.476.
Milledge, at just twenty-two last year, practically equal Nady’s production, hitting .272/.340/.446, and the sky’s the limit as far as his potential. Enough said.
Had the Mets kept, Nady, they would have been better off in the long-term than San Diego, but far from the great avenger that Joe makes Omar out to be, the trade worked out well for good sides, considering Cameron is a spectacular defensive center fielder. Of course, the argument can be made that Minaya failed to fetch more for Cameron and sold low on him, but we shall never really know the other possible trade options on the table.
In the end, Xavier Nady became a solid asset through default, when he was dealt for Oliver Perez during the trade deadline, in 2006. Ryan Church will become a very solid player in 2008- at the expense of Milledge becoming an all-star.
Filed under: Baseball, Lastings Milledge, Mike Cameron, New York Mets, Xavier Nady
