Wagner to Red Sox for Chris Carter, PTBNL

 

I’m somewhat perplexed by some of the criticism concerning the Billy Wagner deal. From my understanding, had the Mets decided not deal him before August 31st, they would owe him the remaining $3.5 million (including his buyout), left on his contract. Assuming the Mets declined his $8 million option for 2010 after this season,  they could than offer him arbitration. If Wagner accepted, the Mets could have either kept him, or traded him to a team in the off-season looking for a closer or expensive set-up man. If Wagner declined, he would have become a free agent and the Mets would net two compensatory draft picks.

In either case, the Mets would have been hedging on:

A) Wagner coming back at full strength.

B) A weak enough closer market.

C) A and B prove so true that a team is willing to fork over two top draft picks for an aging closer in a depressed economy.

Wagner’s looked impressive in two appearances since coming back. The way this season has gone, however, you never know. I’m not sure what to think about the closer market next winter; it’s undoubtedly seen better years.

I just don’t think the demand will be there. Even at a low price, the vast majority of teams just do not want to give up first round picks for relivers, period. If he accepts arbitration, the Mets would absolutely have to deal him- paying Wagner $6-$8 million next year would have been detrimental financially, since all indications say they will cut payroll to at least some extent next year. Likewise, they would suffer from the same demand problem- they might be forced to pick up Wagner’s contract to deal him for anything of value. In other words, the Mets would be paying over $5 million for say, two non-top-tier prospects.

Instead, the Mets not only rid themselves of any risk, but saving $3.5 million is not necessarily about the Wilpon’s making ends meet. As opposed to counting on compensatory draft picks, the Mets can simply reinvest that money toward Latin prospects of similar value, or sign next year’s Damien Magnifico. Maybe there is something  I am missing here, but I cannot understand why people overlook this factor.

That being said, I am not too excited about Chris Carter. Just because the Mets dish out $900,000 to Cory Sullivan does not mean you cannot pluck guys like Carter off the minor league free agent market (i.e. Valentino Pascucci). Still, he is extra depth, and no one saw Jack Cust or Fernando Tatis amounting to anything. Even the GCL prospect could prove interesting- Neftali Feliz was not much more than a throw-in when he was dealt to the Rangers in the Mark Teixeira deal back in 207.

Ollie vs. Gaudin

 

When The Yankees acquired Chad Gaudin on August 7th, I assumed an immensely undervalued asset such as him would at least cost the Bombers a token prospect.

$100,000. Brian Cashman probably paid Kevin Towers in cash.

Gaudin is hardly flawless. He struggles against left-handed batters, often lacks command, and has reliever written all over him. He is just 26, however, and if you watch him he has some pretty impressive stuff. Thus, in a lot of respects, he is similar to Oliver Perez, our $36 million dollar man.

Here is how the two young hurlers stack up against each other (age in parentheses).

Gaudin:

Year	IP	K/PA	BB/PA	HR/PA	GB%	FIP
2007 (24)	199.1	17.38	11.29	2.37	51	4.69
2008 (25)	90	18.56	9.57	2.88	39.1	4.14
2009 (26)	113	22.22	12.09	1.56	45.5	3.80

Perez:

Year	IP	K/PA	BB/PA	HR/PA	GB%	FIP.
2007 (25)	177	22.7	10.33	2.88	35	4.29
2008 (26)	194	21.3	12.4	2.83	34	4.66
2009 (27)	65.1	19.6	17.7	3.16	30	5.91

 

Excuse me while I go bang my head against the wall.

Mets Cut Ties with Hernandez

 

When Bobby Valentine was fired after the 2002 season, he said, referring to Steve Phillips, “And he stays?”

You can bet Livan Hernandez is feeling the same way right now.

Make no mistake, Hernandez was atrocious throughout his entire Mets tenure. Unfortunately, most fans were awed by his tidy 4.06 era. in his first three months in Flushing., ignoring his below average peripherals. Eventually, reality caught up with him; he posted a 6.55 era. after the All-Star break.

Despite this, the Mets are quite possibly the only team in baseball that can screw up releasing the poor guy. No longer will Metropolitan fans have to endure watching Hernandez  surrender a four run first inning. Replacing him will be Tim Redding’s 6.53 era. and $2.25 million price tag.

In case Omar and co. are interested, here are Mike Antonini’s AA stats:

GS	K/PA	BB/PA	HR/PA	FIP
16	18.7%	6.4%	2.34%	3.60

Its’ alright; Tobi Stoner or Lance Broadway will do.

Dumb and Dumber: Mets Edition

 

According to numerous sources, Gary Sheffield requested a contract extension from the Mets and was denied.

Apparently, Sheffield was so distraught by the possibility that a flailing ballclub has no interest in retaining an aging, oft-injured corner outfielder living off whatever offensive contributions compensate for his abysmal fielding, that hethreatened to leave the team. A late scratch from tonight’s lineup, Sheffield pinch hit in the eighth inning and struck out.

A lot of bloggers and analysts have rushed to Sheffield’s defense. As my good friend Joe Janish put it:

if you can find someone who WANTS to be in Flushing, I would be embracing him. Good luck trying to find anyone who wants to join this Mickey Mouse operation.

Sheffield has, at least relatively speaking, done a heck of a job at the plate. I understand it is not easy for a potential Hall of Famer to swallow the fact he is no longer wanted. To add insult to injury, when your rejected from the same team that dished out an impressive sum to Moises Alou, Orlando Hernandez, Brian Schneider, Alex Cora, Julio Franco, Marlon Anderson, Jose Valentin, etc. its easy to see why he feels slighted.

That being said, I still find it downright comical how some athletes cannot rationally assess themselves. Hey Gary, remember buddy: the Tigers are paying you $15 million to be here.

The other interesting aspect of this story is that when the Mets placed Sheffield on waivers August 12th, he was claimed by the Giants, only to be pulled back by the Mets. This means the Mets no longer have the option of leading him, and can now only either release him or place him on irrevocable waivers.

Even the most bullish of Mets fans will admit the Mets were officially finished by than. So why not take the third tier prospect and run with it?

There seems to be a recurrent trend concerning this team: they are so afraid of losing face. They are unequivocally convinced that veterans such as Sheffield, Fernando Tatis, and LivanHernandez (who should have been given a much shorter leash), bring with them a certain sliver of respectability that only a veteran could muster.

Nick Evans? Mike Antonini? Lucas Duda? Shawn Bowman?  Watch the ticket sales plummet. Let’s keep running out a recognizable figure. Mets fans are too ignorant to figure it out.

That’s the only explanation at this point- aside from utter incompetence.

Regardless,  as long as this is a precursor to Sheffield leaving, I’m feeling good. Nick Evans August numbers you ask?

.292/.358/.597.

In case anyone was doubting whether Jerry Manuel and the Mets entire ballclub have become completely apathetic toward how this team performs, the top of the fourth should confirm that reality. After Oliver Perez retired the first two batters of the inning, Matt Diaz singled to left. With Church at the plate, Perez picked off Diaz stealing second base, only for Diaz to run completely out of the baseline towards the infield grass, causing Daniel Murphy’s throw to ricochet off the helmet of Diaz, hitting Anderson Hernandez, who was covering second, in the left shoulder and allowing Diaz to advance to third.

Astonishingly, no one from the Mets came out to argue. Maybe Jerry Manuel can be forgiven for missing the play. But somebody- Razor Shines, Sandy Alomar, somebody on the Mets bench- saw Diaz blatantly step out of the baseline. Yes, the Mets are just waiting to be mathematically eliminated, but I have seen Sally League managers in relatively meaningless games do their part and go out and argue a close call.

To add insult to injury, the umpires refused to acknowledge any doubts about the play either. Of course, everybody on WFAN tomorrow will contend that this further reflects some crisis in umpiring. I would agree that dreadful calls seem more prevalent today, although I would argue that it is more likely fans have developed a confirmation bias than umpires have gotten progressively worse. These kind of plays only strengthen their case, however.  

To their credit, the Mets are winning 8-4 now. This team still has enough fight in them to dissipate any chance of landing Bryce Harper in next year’s draft.

Mets and Roster Construction Part II

 

 

Update: Apparently, the Mets have promoted Andy Green. Shoot me now.

As most of you know, David Wright hit the DL yesterday with a concussion after being hit by a pitch in the head by the Giant’s Matt Cain Sunday. Everyone else around the blosphere has offered their two cents on the morality issue here- Ill just say I agree with my friend Jack Flynn’s take at his blog. I’m in no mood for a fluff peice today.

Instead, I’ll continue to look Omar a and co.’s incompotence when it comes to roster management following an injury.

Fernando Tatis’s line right now is .250/.311/.412. Even if you account for his xBABIP (.282), his AVG./OBP. improves marginally:  .264/.312.  For a 34 year-old those numbers are maybe- just maybe- tolerable for a bench player. To play everyday for at least two weeks on a team going nowhere is inexcusable.

Nck Evans has hit .255/.301/.405 in 153 career at-bats in the big leagues. It’s safe to safe the Daniel Murphy experiment at first base has failed; his future with the team right now is as a utility infielder. Thus,  if the Mets decide to promote Evans, Murphy can accumulate some reps. at third for the time being, while Evans plays first until Wright returns. Make no mistake, Ike Davis is a better prospect than Evans, but given this is Davis’s first full season in pro-ball, the Mets will wisely let him finish the season in AA.

If the Mets still have faith in Murphy, the case can be made for promoting Shawn Bowman. Bowman, 24, has been battling major back issues since 2005, more or less sapping all his playing time entering this year. In fact, he just returned Friday after suffering a lower back strain in the beginning of July. He has held his own in 328 plate appearances with Binghamton this year, hitting .292/.341/.445, and has always been known for his slick glove (people used to say in 2004 he would move Wright to first).

Bowman was drafted in the 12th round out of high school in 2002. He has got to be the only kid drafted that late, played in the same organizatin seven years, and not made an appearance in the big leagues.

The Mets and Roster Construction

During the Mets telecast on SNY a few nights ago, Ron Darling noted how Jerry Manuel told him “he would not reward mediocrity.”

Manuel has stayed true to his word: he does not award mediocrity. Instead, he awards replacement-level veterans with infinite opportunities.

For one, Brian Schneider’s currently hitting .192/.286/.336. Despite being a catcher, that level of production is still unacceptable. The Mets are going to have a decision to make next year behind the plate, with Josh Thole posting a .332/.401/.431  line at AA. It is questionable how Thole’s bat will play at the big league level, given his lack of power projection and the fact his numbers are probably inflated to some extent. Here is his batted ball ball distribution compared to the AA average:

	BABIP.	GB%	LD%	FB%	IF%
J. Thole	.365	55.1%	13.1%	31.5	6.3%
AA AVG.	.306 (Eastern League).	46%	15%	29%	8%

The B-Mets park plays well to hitters, which explains Thole’s home/road splits: .865 OPS./.384 BABIP, .805 OPS. .349 BABIP. That being said, considering he does not have much speed, his BBD suggests he will at least see some regression.

Thus, if Thole is not a sure bet to produce at the big league level next year, it is all-the-more important for the Mets to see what they have in Omir Santos.  Santos has shown some good pop for a catcher, hitting .257.297/407. Due to his low OBP. his OPS+ (82), is ten points shy of the league average. If you adjust for his BABIP, however, his batting average and OBP. jumps to .276 and .328, respectively, with even more power. By contrast, Schneider’s adjusted line is only .236/.269.

It’s true that Schneider has had better success with the bat in the past (2008 adjusted line: .275/.367/.388). Since Thole will undoubtedly be called up when rosters expand, however, one of them will have to go by than, and Schneider’s clearly fallen out of favor with the fan base. At the very least, they should give Santos the lion’s share of the playing time now.

 Meanwhile, Livan Henrnadez will get another shot in the rotation. Hernandez has predictably come back down to earth following the first three months of the season. Brad Holt is probably better off refining his stuff in AA. Lance Broadway or Mike Antonini can’t be any worse nonetheless.

The Mets have also shown no inclination to move Gary Sheffield, while Nick Evans value and development withers away in Buffalo. Maybe the Mets just want to showcase a healthy Sheffield, but every teams knows he is an injury risk regardless; an extra week at full strength is not going to fool anyone.

Of course, people will say, Omar’s just waiting for Schneider to go on a tare, or Hernandez to string together a few good starts so he can sell high. Most teams smart enough to contend, however, do not think like Omar; they don’t see Hernandez has a veteran who “stabilizes the back end of the rotation”, or Schneider as a “veteran presence.” They seem as easily replaceable commodities should the need for them ever even arise. 

At best, the Mets will receive a roster filler or cash considerations for each. The average fan tends to conflate C-level prospects and roster fillers. There is a clear distinction: Antonini, Lucas Duda, Eric Beaulac, etc. have a shot at playing in the big leagues. Jean Luc Blaquiere, Eric Brown, and [fill in A-Ball reliever] unfortunately do not.

I know I am nitpicking. I understand I probably sound repetitive. But even when this team completely falls off the map, they do a poor job of managing their roster, and they have to be called out for that.

Update: Oliver Perez and his Release Point

Here are Perez’s averages from yesterday’s start against Arizona, during which he walked six batters in 5.1 innings of work:

AVG. Vert Var.	AVG. Hor. Var.	AVG. Vert. R.P.	AVG. Hor R.P.
.316 (3.8 inches)	.247 (2.96 inches)	5.56 (5 ft. 6.7 inches)	2.39 (2 ft. 4.68 inches)

Perez had the most inconsistent release point, vertically and horizontally, he has had since coming back. His vertical release point was also the highest it has been as well, although not by any significant margin. As I mentioned in my article,  his average horizontal release point tends to vary, although that doesn’t seem to really affect him.

FYI, here are the numbers from his previous starts since returning from the DL:

Release Point Variation:

Date	Vertical Var.	Horizontal Var.
8/7 (SD)	.164 (1.97 inches)	.196 (2.35 inches)
8/1 (ARI)	.185 (2.22 inches)	.18 (2.16 inches)
7/27 (COL)	.153 (1.84 inches)	.194 (2.33 inches)
7/21 (WAS)	.19 (2.28 inches)	.196 (2.35 inches)
7/16 (ATL)	.246 (2.95 inches)	.206 (2.47 inches)
7/8 (LAD)	.144 (1.73 inches)	.197 (2.36 inches)

Average Release Point:

Data	AVG. Vertical R.P.	AVG. Horizontal R.P.
8/7 (SD)	5.24 (5 ft. 2.88 inches)	2.24 (2 ft. 2.88 inches)
8/1 (ARI)	5.53 (5 ft. 6.36 inches)	2.24 (2 ft. 2.88 inches)
7/27 (COL)	5.44 ( 5 ft. 5.28 inches)	2.23 (2 ft. 2.76 inches)
7/21 (WAS)	5.4 (5 ft 4.8 inches)	2.51 (2 ft. 6.12 inches)
7/16 (ATL)	5.5 (5 ft. 6 inches)	2.4 (2 ft. 4.8 inches)
7/8 (LAD)	5.39 (5 ft. 4.68 inches)	2.09 (2ft. 1.08 inches)

Playing Under Tony Bernazard

 

I recently had an enlightening exchange with Teddy Dziuba over at my good friend and Sand Gnats beat reporter John Mackin Ade’s blog-Macks Mets- regarding what it was like to be a Mets prospect during the Tony Bernazard era. For those don’t know, Teddy, a catcher, was selected by the Mets in the 33rd round of the 2006 draft. He played sparingly for Brooklyn that year, than made stops in Kingsport, Savannah, St. Lucie, and Binghamton in 2007, before eventually being released by the Mets.

Teddy’s been blogging there a couple weeks now. His most recent post concerning Bernazard, however, caught my attention, so I thought I’d raise a few questions:

Matt: I hate to play devil’s advocate here, but the impression I get is that most organization’s prioritize individual performance above team performance.

I see what you mean about Bernazard fostering an atmosphere that was perhaps too competitive, pitting players against each other. But wouldn’t you admit there were players like yourself, who, talented as you are, weren’t considered first tier prospects, probably did secretly hope some players failed? Maybe not a team wide failure, but a guy whom you were competing with for playing time?

IMO, there’s a fine line between team performance and individual performance at the minor league level. Numerous prospects sacrifice short-term (season-long) pain for long term gain. For instance, an A-Ball pitcher might be better off performance wise if he blows away guy’s with his fastball, but he knows that if he wants to make it past AA, let alone succeed in the big leagues, he’ll have to work on say, his secondary stuff.

I’m not condoning what Bernazard did, but his job is to develop guys capable of playing in the big leagues. I could see where a guy in the situation above could get caught up in his team’s playoff race instead of worrying about his development.

Last but not least, not looking to start anything personal, but isn’t the American/Spanish divide often voluntary? Would you be able to elaborate on that point?

Teddy: I don’t think I was able to verbalize what I was trying to say in describing the culture of the Mets minor leagues. Let me preface the following comments by saying this: I never harbored the delusion that I was on the fast trackto the big leagues and during my playing career, I was well aware that the Mets were using me as cannon fodder…not that that was easy to swallow, but I was always self-aware and new that the road was going to end at some point

That being said, my biggest gripe with how things played out was that their was really no incentive for playing “smart” baseball in the Mets system…it was a system that encouraged coaches to toss blame at the players, and truly, it was more beneficial to “not screw up” than it was to do your job properly. Praise was thrown at certain prospects for not making certain mistakes instead of actually performing well.

It’s really hard to put into words, but it was a system of evaluation that was predicated on negativity. 2 examples:

Camp in 2007, I spoke to the speedy ss batting in front of me who lead off the inning. I told him, “if you get on, I’ll get in the catchers way on the first pitch so you can steal 2b” He walked, I fake bunted (on my own), catcher dropped the ball and the runner got a free stolen base. Next pitch, i rolled over a ground ball, got the runner to third with one out, and thought I had done my job. Instead of a pat on the ass for working with my teammate and getting the runner over, I was chastised for wasting the at bat and for not getting my pitch. Am I nitpicking? maybe, but this is the kind of stuff that pervaded the system

3 Days before my release in 2008, I went 4-4 with a home run, 2 doubles, 4 rbi and missed the cycle because I slipped rounding first base on the first double. After the game, the only thing my coach said to me was “you gotta work on your turns rounding first” He was serious…no “good game Ted”, no “way to hit em”, just another negative comment in a long line of negative comments that sapped players of their confidence and desire to continue working as hard.

I like to think of myself as a likeable guy Matt, and in the realm of minor league ballplayers, an ameable kid with no ego is hard to come by, so its not like I was treated any differently for any reason, it was just a system wide dynamic that forced players to think that its better to just not screw up than try and do that little extra at the expense of potentially being called out for it

Maybe I’m biased because I went to a college specializing in entrepreneurship, but baseball was always like jazz to me, players (especially catchers) constantly need to adapt and think on the fly to perform to their fullest. I just got the sense that such behavior was frowned upon. If a coach hadn’t expressly taught a certain aspect of the game, don’t even think of doing anything otherwise.

Maybe i’m placing too much blame on Tony himself, but he was the king of pointing out the flaws in players he didn’t like, and accentuating the small positives of the guys he did like. Without naming names, there are 5-10 players in the system who are on their 4th, 5th and 6thchances with the Mets…why then are so many not even given that first chance? And I know your response is that some guys just aren’t meant to be big leaguers, but for every failed Mets prospect during this most recent tenure that was given every opportunity to succeed and failed, I feel like there are just as many kids who could have developed into the Joe McEwing’s or David Eckstein’s of the world but just weren’t given their 100 at bats to prove it

Forgive me if any of my writing is whiny and sounds like its coming from a bitter ex minor leaguer…i assure you, that is not my intention. I just think there are some fundamental flaws in the player development approach that Tony employed, or at least helped oversee

Matt:I see your point about Bernzard’s and co.’s intimidation and assertion of authority a lot better now. If anything, it hurts pd.

One question though: What do you think Bernazard’s criteria is for playing favorites? Why does he favor certain players when the talent difference is negligible? Do you think this was about him angling for power?

Teddy:  In response to your question, any answer I give would only be speculation and im not exactly the most trusted source…Christ, Adam Rubin knows more about the Mets than anyone and nowadays even he can’t give an opinion without the general manager calling him out…

But I’ll say this. Tony had a clear preference for fellow Puerto Rican born ballplayers. He would toss extra batting practice to them and a handful of the other latin born ballplayers exclusively. He was a big fan of Hector Pellot’s and supposedly he cried when Jose Castro was traded to the Reds in the Jeff Conine deal. I’m not one to pass judgement, but for a guy who is supposed to be impartial and judge ballplayers based on talent and future ability, I would think crying when one of them gets traded is not a good sign for someone who is not supposed to play favorites

August Rumors: Sheffield, Harang.

Considering  just about everyone on the Mets has packed in the season, you would think it was only a matter of time before Garry Sheffield would sour on this team and go running his mouth or something. Apparently, however, he prefers to stay with the Mets down the stretch:

My preference is to stay here… I might change when it happens. It might be a team that I would be happy about it. Another team, I might not be happy about it.”

Sheffield’s undoubtedly been a productive force when healthy. hitting .284/.381/.476. His OPS+ (125), is 15 points higher than the league average. That being said, on the off-chance Fernando Martinez can return within the next few weeks, or the Mets come around to Nick Evans,  that leaves  no spot for either in the outfield when rosters expand and the minor league season ends in September. Martinez probably won’t play center if Angel Pagan continues to hit well.

Further, Bart Hubbach says Jerry Manuel supports resigning Sheffield. As a fourth outfielder and a bat off the bench, I don’t disagree. Having him start, however, even with F-Mart close to big league ready, wreaks of Moises Alou.

In other news, Aaron Harang cleared waivers yesterday. Harang’s due $12.5 million next year, and $250,000 more the follow year with a $2 million buyout. His performance certainly warrants it. Harang is a workhorse with excellent peripherals this year, whiffing eight batters and allowing just 2.3 walks per nine innings. Being a flyball pitcher, he is prone to the long ball, although that could change in Citi Field. If he was a free agent next year, he would be arguably the best pitcher on the market.