Wagner to Red Sox for Chris Carter, PTBNL

 

I’m somewhat perplexed by some of the criticism concerning the Billy Wagner deal. From my understanding, had the Mets decided not deal him before August 31st, they would owe him the remaining $3.5 million (including his buyout), left on his contract. Assuming the Mets declined his $8 million option for 2010 after this season,  they could than offer him arbitration. If Wagner accepted, the Mets could have either kept him, or traded him to a team in the off-season looking for a closer or expensive set-up man. If Wagner declined, he would have become a free agent and the Mets would net two compensatory draft picks.

In either case, the Mets would have been hedging on:

A) Wagner coming back at full strength.

B) A weak enough closer market.

C) A and B prove so true that a team is willing to fork over two top draft picks for an aging closer in a depressed economy.

Wagner’s looked impressive in two appearances since coming back. The way this season has gone, however, you never know. I’m not sure what to think about the closer market next winter; it’s undoubtedly seen better years.

I just don’t think the demand will be there. Even at a low price, the vast majority of teams just do not want to give up first round picks for relivers, period. If he accepts arbitration, the Mets would absolutely have to deal him- paying Wagner $6-$8 million next year would have been detrimental financially, since all indications say they will cut payroll to at least some extent next year. Likewise, they would suffer from the same demand problem- they might be forced to pick up Wagner’s contract to deal him for anything of value. In other words, the Mets would be paying over $5 million for say, two non-top-tier prospects.

Instead, the Mets not only rid themselves of any risk, but saving $3.5 million is not necessarily about the Wilpon’s making ends meet. As opposed to counting on compensatory draft picks, the Mets can simply reinvest that money toward Latin prospects of similar value, or sign next year’s Damien Magnifico. Maybe there is something  I am missing here, but I cannot understand why people overlook this factor.

That being said, I am not too excited about Chris Carter. Just because the Mets dish out $900,000 to Cory Sullivan does not mean you cannot pluck guys like Carter off the minor league free agent market (i.e. Valentino Pascucci). Still, he is extra depth, and no one saw Jack Cust or Fernando Tatis amounting to anything. Even the GCL prospect could prove interesting- Neftali Feliz was not much more than a throw-in when he was dealt to the Rangers in the Mark Teixeira deal back in 207.