Rule Five Draft

The Mets have the seventh overall pick going into this winter’s Rule Five Draft. A few of the more interesting players available (Aneurys Rodriguez, Steven Wright, Edgar Osuna), have been profiled elsewhere, so I brought to light a few more names I thought were overlooked.

Koby Clemens, C: Despite the fact he played in a hitter’s haven, his BABIP should have been about 100 points lower, and his last name makes him slightly overrated, the guy is still an intriguing pick after posting an OPS. over 1000 in Advanced A-Ball last year. I am not sure why the Astros will probably leave him unprotected- perhaps his defense is awful, or there are some makeup concerns (he was arrested in a bar fight last year).

The Mets could hide him as a third string catcher like the Nationals did with Jesus Flores a few years ago. Even if you do not want to waste a bench spot, however, I do not see much harm in making him second string- half the backup catchers in baseball can barely post a .600 OPS. anyways.

Kevin Whelan, RHRP: Struggles with control and has had injury problems, but  any pitcher with his K rates is worth considering. This pick has real upside.

Josh Perrault, RHRP: Older (27) but peripherals at AA and AAA the last two years have been very good.

Kanekoa Texeira, RHRP: High GB%. Would not mind seeing him compete for a bullpen spot.

Collin Curtis, OF: According to minor-league splits, he is solid with the glove in center and very good in the corners, although a larger sample size would help. Unfortunately, that is the sum of his value. Could provide value as a fifth outfielder depending on the makeup of the Mets outfield next year (a young Endy Chavez?). Too bad he cannot pinch-run.

Steven Singleton, 2B/SS: Middle infielder with some pop and has generally shown a very good glove at second. We already let go of Wilson Valdez, but Singleton could be worth considering in a later round.

Josh Wilkie, RHRP: Solid minor league numbers throughout, really turned it on after promotion to AAA in late July.

Neil Wagner, RHRP: Excellent K, very good GB rate in AA last year.

Josh Tomlin, RHRP: A bit old for Advanced A-Ball and AA the last two years (23/24), but the numbers have been very good. A flyball pitcher, he could be worth it as a mop-up man next year while providing some upside down the road.

Amalio Diaz, RHSP: Limited upside, but solid AA numbers at 22. See Tomlin. Update: Stephen Smith from Future Angels sent me an email saying Diaz is:

An organizational player, in my opinion.  He doesn’t have the velocity or a”plus” pitch that would make him a major league prospect.  At Double-A Arkansas this year, he was awful as a starter, moved into the bullpen in
mid-May and did quite well, got some spot starts the rest of the way.  I wouldn’t waste a major league roster spot protecting him for a full year.

That should cross him off the list.

Minor League Reference Up

I have added a page projecting all the Mets affiliates, from Savannah to Buffalo, Opening Day roster’s. I also included a list of many (I am missing some  GCL, DSL, and VSL players that are relatively unimportant) prospects that will likely be assigned to Extended Spring Training, as well as guys who I feel will be cut before the season starts.

It is all conjecture, based on what I read and a few sources I talk to, but all things considered its’ a pretty accurate estimation of what things will look like four months from now. Basically, its’ a useful point of reference that I can update between new information, injuries, trades, etc. If anything looks out of place, let me know.

 

Mets, Dessens, Nearing Deal

According to FoxSports.com, the Mets are close to re-signing Elmer Dessens. Dessens, who will be 39 next year, has a below average fastball, and at best an average breaking ball. Omar is a sucker for his 3.31 era. in 32.2 innings last year, but his 11% K rate and 5.29 FIP do not fool the more enlightened of us.

At this point in his career, Dessens has two things going for him: 13 years in the big leagues, and a GM who thinks that is enough to warrant 14.

Missed Oppurtunity

The White Sox and outfielder Andruw Jones have agreed to a one year, $500,000 contract. Jones can earn another million in performance bonuses. Reports indicate the Jones will not play everyday, instead splitting time as a fourth outfielder and DH.

Aside from some very good offensive years, Jones was the gold standard for center field defense from the time he broke into the big leagues until 2007, routinely saving over 20 runs above average per year with his defense alone at one of the toughest positions. After signing a two-year, $36 million dollar deal with the Dodgers in 2008, Jones had a miserable year at the plate, posting a .505 OPS. and a .234 wOBA, but still gave them average-above average defense.

Jones rebounded offensively with the Rangers in 2009, hitting .214/.323/.459 with .338 wOBA. He mysteriously played just 17 games in the field, 12 in left and 5 in right, though it is worth noting his UZR/150 was 25.5 and 22.9, respectively.

In 2008, Jones was placed on the DL twice with knee problems, and was forced to have surgery the first time around. So was Rangers General Manager Jon Daniels just trying to ease Jones back in, or did Jones defense decline to the point where it was no longer an asset?

If Jones can play an average center field, that is valuable in itself (Chone actually projects a 11.7 UZR in center in 2010). As a corner outfielder, that means he could easily save 10-15 runs per year, and be about a 3 win player.

That may not seem like too much, but you are talking about over $10 million in surplus value. Winning teams build championships by surrounding their core, 5-6 win players with cheap, 2-3 win talent.

Of course, that is a big if. Given that Jones’s defensive prowess, was not so much the result of athleticism as it was his baseball smarts and knowing how to take good routes, it would not necessarily be a smooth transition from center to a corner outfield spot.

I think Jones was denied time in the field in Texas, however, because he was in good defensive company. Nelson Cruz is a stud in right field. Josh Hamilton, despite his previous struggles in center field, was very good in limited action this year, and if Hamilton wants to play the outfield, he will play there. Marlon Byrd is an excellent corner outfielder, and was a solid center fielder coming into this year. Over his entire career, David Murphy has been solid in both corners. Julio Borbon, whom the Rangers brought up this year, was known for having outstanding range in the outfield. In fact, the first scouting report that came up on google says:

You know how about three quarters of the world is covered by water? The rest of it is covered by Julio Borbon. He has unbelievable range with his speed, and is capable of making all the routine plays and some of the tough ones. His arm is below average to average at best, but he should be able to stay in center field because of the range.

Of course, you have to hit enough to be on the field to begin with, and Jones had a lot to prove entering last year.

As a starter, Jones is a low-risk, fairly high reward to any team. Off the bench he could prove to be immensely valuable. If the Mets traded Jeff Francoeur, and signed Matt Holliday, I would have loved to see Jones split time with Angel Pagan in right. By doing so, the Mets minimize the risk of Pagan’s otherwise excellent 2009 proving to be a fluke. Not to mention it would give the Mets some excellent depth in the outfield, with Carlos Beltran’s knees in question.

There is a lot not to like about Jones; he has gotten noticeably thicker over the years, strikes out a ton, and his makeup and work ethic have been called into question more than once. The fact that he cannot even secure $1 million this off-season might be saying a lot about his fielding ability.

Plus, if he is an overlooked bargain, I doubt Kenny Williams would be the one to find him. But right now, I wish he was cigar chomping in a suite at Citi Field, and Andruw Jones was patrolling the corners next year.

Looking Back on the Castillo/Gotay Debacle

To this day, I still have a soft spot for Ruben Gotay. Bitter is actually a more apt. description.

On a personal level, it has always irked me that Luis Castillo is wearing a Mets uniform at the expense of a promising youngster cheated out of a big league career. Nothing against Castillo, other than being a toxic asset on the Mets payroll, but any time an athlete is denied a well-deserved opportunity to succeed at any level it is somewhat depressing.

I thought Gotay deserved a chance before the Mets traded for Castillo at the deadline in 2007.  When the Mets denied him a spot on the 25-man roster  before heading north in 2008, and were thus forced to place him on waivers, I thought it underscored the ignorance of the organization like nothing else; only the Mets would rid themselves of a 25 year-old .800+ OPS. infielder for absolutely nothing.

Looking back more closely now, however, I probably overlooked a few red flags. Even than, Gotay was an egregious fielder, and his BABIP was a concern. So I decided to analyze the deal a little further.

The Trade:

On July 31st, 2007, the Mets sent prospects Drew Butera and Dustin Martin to Minnesota for Luis Castillo. Butera and Martin were barely C-Level prospects at the time, and have yet to play in the big leagues since, but Minnesota was able to avoid paying the money owed to Castillo the rest of his contract year.

Gotay was hitting an excellent .350/.382/.504 with a .391 wOBA at the time of the deal. His high OBP. however, was mostly a function of his batting average. as he walked in just 5.26% of his PA. That is a significant problem when your BABIP is .411. I did not think much of his BABIP at the time, partly because he had a very high LD% (around 29%). If we regress his production toward a more reasonable .320-.330 BABIP, his line was about .284/.322/.409 with a .330 wOBA.*

That does not sound like too bad of a drop-off, but if Gotay did regress all the way to a .325 BABIP over the next two months, he would have put up something like a .275 wOBA  and a .580 OPS. down the stretch.

From the Mets perspective, the consensus was (correctly), that Gotay was a promising, if risky venture, and they decided to acquire the dependable veteran in Castillo. Castillo joined the Mets with a .709 OPS. and gave them a .742 OPS. Overall, he gave them a solid 3.1 UZR/150, an exorbitant improvement over Gotay’s -18.9 UZR/150 in 37 games that year.

The point is Gotay would likely have experienced a severe drop-off in his production, and that was a risk the Mets undoubtedly could not afford, even if it hindered Gotay’s development, and I have to admit that.

Post 2007:

If Gotay could have sustained his 2007 production before Castillo arrived over a full season, he would have given the Mets slightly below average offense at second, and left a lot to be desired defensively (career -7.7 UZR/150). That is sill worth 1.5-2 wins, or around $7-$9 million, if he played everyday. In contrast, Castillo, whom the Mets signed to a four-year, $24 million dollar contract before the 2008 season, has been worth an average of 1.1 wins the last two years, due to his decline in range since.

Of course, we have to be wary of sample size error- we are talking about less than 150 plate appearances. But Gotay also offered vast potential for improvement at the plate with his quick bat (I loved his wrist-flicking action), and on the diamond with his quick feet.  Not to mention the Mets would have had his cost under control for years.

In the absence of better options, Gotay could have stepped up and platooned in 2008, or the Mets could have found a stop-gap option (Castillo on a one-year deal?), and given Gotay 250-300 at-bats off the bench, include some time in the outfield, to prove himself. They certainly could have used him instead of Damion Easley or Argenis Reyes at second when Castillo was on the DL. Yes, Easley was coming off a very good year, but he was 38 and the Mets should have seen his swift decline coming. Add Brady Clark’s 7 at-bats to the mix too, whom the Mets decided to initially carry at the expense of waiving Gotay.

Conclusion:

While the deadline deal, in hindsight, was a solid move on Omar’s part, it was beyond foolish to have cut ties with Gotay entering 2008. I am willing to cut Omar some slack, since Castillo went from a solid defensive second baseman in 2007 to an absolute butcher the last two years

Chances are, Gotay was no Rod Carew in the making, but he could have been busy carving out a nice little big league career the last two years. The Mets could try and make up for that this off-season.

* I did not use his overall season line, since Gotay played sparingly after July 31st. If I recall, he did not play completely regularly beforehand either, but I think we get a much better idea of his production.

Buy-Low Candidates: Hank Blalock and Austin Kearns

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In light of the Yankees once again reclaiming their spot atop the baseball universe, it is only fitting we talk about undervalued assets on the market. Around this time last year, the Yankees acquired Nick Swisher from the Chicago White Sox, for Wilson Betemit and C-Grade prospects Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez.

Swisher was coming off a year in which he provided below average offense, hitting just .219/.332/.410 with a .325 wOBA. Despite accumulating almost 600 plate appearances, Swisher was just a one win player in 2008. Not to mention he was strikeout prone, with a 27.2% K rate.

Otherwise, however, there was a lot to like about Swisher. From 2006-2007 with the Oakland Athletics, Swisher had an OPS. of .864 and .836, and a wOBA of .368 and .361, respectively; he was a 3-3.5 win player. Unlike both the A’s and the White Sox, the Yankees realized Swisher left a lot to be desired at both first and center field, and instead confined him to right field; he had a history of playing well in the corners. Plus, Swisher’s game dovetailed with the new Yankee Stadium, where he could take advantage of the short right field porch at the plate.

Most importantly, however, Swisher had an  BABIP of a .251. According to the very handy xBABIP tool, however, Swisher’s project line looked something more like .255/.368/.455. with an xBABIP of .300.

Swisher went on to post an .869 OPS. and .375 wOBA in 2009. His defense was just average, and his BABIP did not rebound as expected (.277), but even a 20-30 point difference can make a significant difference in a guy’s value (see Adrian Gonzalez). Overall he was worth 3.5 wins, or about $16 million dollars.

If Omar and co. are smart, there are a few similar moves the Mets can make that can potentially equally benefit them.

Hank Blalock:  Throughout his seven year career in the big leagues, Blalock has gone from a young, borderline all-star, to a below average third baseman, to a very good but oft-injured player without a position.

By all indications, Blalock can hit. In 258 at-bats in 2008, he hit .287/.338/.508 with a .361 wOBA. In 2009, he hit .234/.277/.459 with a .313 wOBA. If you adjust for his .252 BABIP, however, his line improves to .275/.314/.512. The .OBP might seem like a drag, but Blalock has such incredible raw power (.225 ISOP), that his wOBA (.370), is actually above average for a first baseman.

I am not that concerned about Blalock’s home/away splits; he was actually over 100 OPS. points better on the road than at home last year. Obviously, the biggest concern is health. Lingering back issues go beyond missing playing time; you will have always have swing problems with a sore back- just ask Eric Duncan.

Blalock’s defense at first is a question mark; he was awful in his first stint last year, but according to UZR was very good in 66 games this year. After his 2003-2004 heyday, he was very bad at third. For now, we’ll just assume he is an average defender (0.0 UZR). Over a full season, Blalock would likely be a 2.5-3 win player.

In other words, if the Mets don’t trade for Adrian Gonzalez,  decide Daniel Murphy is not good enough, and are ready to move on from the Carlos Delgado era.  it is a toss up between Blalock and Nick Johnson on the free agent market. A few years back, Johnson’s defense would have made that an easy decision. Now, with his diminishing range, I would rather go with the younger uncertainty in Blalock. It is difficult to say who is the bigger injury risk. Whatever the case, I think Blalock will come far cheaper.

Austin Kearns: The Nationals just declined Kearn’s $10 million dollar option for 2010, making him a free agent. The seventh overall pick back in 1998, Kearns made it to the big leagues in 2002, hitting .315/.407/.500 in 372 at-bats. Ticketed for stardom, he instead struggled with injuries over the next few years.

Still, between Cincinatti and Washington, Kearns put up two full healthy seasns from 2006-2007, hitting a combined .266/.356/.438, .361 wOBA, making him worth $15-$16 million per year, as he saved 15-16 runs per year with his defense alone.

Kearns has struggled mightily the last two years, however. In 2008, he hit just .217/.311/.316 .287 wOBA in 357 plate appearances. In 2009, he got just 211 plate appearances hitting .195/.336/.305 .298 wOBA. His BABIP those two years have been .251 and .258, respectively. His adjusted line looks something like:

2008 (xBABIP .303): ..259/.347/.364

2009 (xBABIP .326): .242/.355/.377

The .OBP. is encouraging- Kearns knows how to take a walk. But while his new punch n’ judy-like numbers might work in center field, they are concerning for a corner outfielder. Stiil, Kearns, over a full season, is worth a little over 2 wins, or around $10 million dollars, when you factor in his defense. If he can get his SLG% over .400 (very likely, given his track record and the move from Washington to Citi Field), than he would be around a 3 win player.

Kearns could spot whoever our corner outfielders are next year, and provided some right-handed pop off the bench. The Mets could certainly use his added range in Citi field. He is not an obvious candidate, but if healthy- he would probably sign an incentive laden deal- he can be a very useful piece to have around next year.