Oswalt Equivalent Trade
The Pelfrey-Happ parallel is similar to the Joe Saunders comparison. In fact, Happ, if healthy, is likely a slightly better pitcher than Saunders, and if you asked me if I would rather have Happ or Pelfrey coming into the season, I would probably take Happ.
Pelfrey’s strikeout and walk rates are both mediocre. The sum of his value is inducing ground-balls and keeping the ball in the park. Thus, it seems like his era. is dependent on pitching in a favorable park, and having a good infield defense behind him, which makes it difficult to project his value. That being said, I think it is safe to say he is a 2-3 win pitcher at this point.
Oswalt, on the other hand, is on track to be worth almost four wins this year, and was worth just 3.6 wins and 3.1 wins from 2008-2009, respectively. Pelfrey, under the right circumstances, can be expected to match that production.
Oswalt, however, would likely improve his numbers making half his starts at Citi Field, which suppresses home runs. His HR/9 rate has been hovering around one per game the last three years, and his average HR/FB rate is 10.59% (which is about league-average). In Citi Field, Oswalt could see his home run rate favorably revert to his 2006-2007 campaigns (7.67% HR/FB, .66 HR/9) when he posted an FIP of 3.3 and 3.59, and was worth 5.7 and 4.6 wins, respectively. While he is not getting any younger, his strikeout rate is also the highest it has been since his rookie season in 2001.
Thus, while some people might contend replacing Pelfrey with Oswalt is merely a marginal upgrade, I think a closer look reveals its’ a substantial one.
Gose is capable of improving upon his plate discipline, but chances are he will not be Brett Gardner. If his power develops and he reaches his ceiling, Carl Crawford is an accurate comparison, but filling out might come at the expense of precluding him from playing a good center field; a four-five win player is nothing to cry about, but it does somewhat mitigate his value. His floor- which one scout I talked to refers to as “most-likely outcome”- is Michael Bourn or Endy Chavez or any other classic leadoff hitter before everyone realized OBP. was important.
Puello might be confined to the corners, but reports are he plays a good right-field, and more importantly his frame suggests he will develop more power. Gose and Puello are both the same age and at a similar stage in their development.
Villar and Tovar? Not much to say there. Both are toolsy, athletic shortstops in the Sally League, who are a long way from the big leagues.
Considering the Astros willingness to pay nearly half of Oswalt’s salary through 2011, and the weakness of next winter’s free agent market, I cannot see a reason why I would not make this deal.
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