Looking Toward 2011: Can Ruben Tejada Play Second Everyday?

In my column over at Mets Today a couple of days back, I wrote this about Ruben Tejada:

With a weak free agent market next year and the Mets lacking payroll flexibility, if Tejada can increase his offensive production modestly — still below average but not hovering around the Mendoza line — he is a passable starter, with the potential for more.

That has always been my sense, but I decided I would take a closer look.

Obviously, Tejada is an asset defensively. How many runs we can account for him saving next year is unfortunately dependent on if UZR is kind to him. For the sake of this piece, I will assume he saves 7.5 runs on defense; saving between 5 and 10 runs is very good for a second baseman, albeit unspectacular.

The real question is how well Tejada’s bat will play in the big leagues. Right now, he is hitting a putrid .489 OPS. with a .225 wOBA. Given his low BABIP (.225) and high LD% (24%), however, I would expect him to improve quite a bit.

But will it still be enough?

Tejada’s MLB equivalent line, based on his AAA time, is .238/.281/.290 .571 OPS. with a wOBA of about .255.-.260. Coming into this season, Chone projected a .273 wOBA, and ZIPS predicted a .285 wOBA.

If Tejada posted a .275 wOBA, and saved 7.5 runs, that would come out to about replacement level. I think it goes without saying that is not acceptable.

However, if he raised his wOBA to the .300-.305 range- think an OPS. in the .670-.690 range- Tejada would be worth about 1.5 wins. That might not sound like much, but its’ comparable to Luis Castillo’s 2009, which I would consider adequate, and Tejada would be making the league minimum. Whatever the case, it is hard to say if that is a reasonable expectation of progression from Tejada, or if we are overrating by him by 100 points worth of OPS.

My favorite, optimistic point of reference is Elvis Andrus. Andrus posted very similar numbers as a 20 year-old in AA in 2008, as Tejada did as a 19 year-old in 2009. He posted an OPS. of .702 and a .322 wOBA in 2009, and has a .682 OPS. and a wOBA of .317. Andrus has more speed than Tejada (50 stolen base and counting over the last two seasons), which inflates his wOBA a bit. Without the steals, his wOBA last year and this year is .307 and .310, respectively. Still, if Tejada can swipe 15-20 bases at a good success rate, he can add some extra points to his wOBA.

That being said, if the Mets are intent on contending next year, settling for Tejada seem like too big of a compromise. Even if Tejada hits well over the rest of the season, I would take it with a grain of salt, given its’ a small sample size in the scheme of things. By all means, let him gain some big league experience if it suits his development, but he is probably best off opening next year in Buffalo.

Advertisement