Rule Five Draft

The Mets have the seventh overall pick going into this winter’s Rule Five Draft. A few of the more interesting players available (Aneurys Rodriguez, Steven Wright, Edgar Osuna), have been profiled elsewhere, so I brought to light a few more names I thought were overlooked.

Koby Clemens, C: Despite the fact he played in a hitter’s haven, his BABIP should have been about 100 points lower, and his last name makes him slightly overrated, the guy is still an intriguing pick after posting an OPS. over 1000 in Advanced A-Ball last year. I am not sure why the Astros will probably leave him unprotected- perhaps his defense is awful, or there are some makeup concerns (he was arrested in a bar fight last year).

The Mets could hide him as a third string catcher like the Nationals did with Jesus Flores a few years ago. Even if you do not want to waste a bench spot, however, I do not see much harm in making him second string- half the backup catchers in baseball can barely post a .600 OPS. anyways.

Kevin Whelan, RHRP: Struggles with control and has had injury problems, but  any pitcher with his K rates is worth considering. This pick has real upside.

Josh Perrault, RHRP: Older (27) but peripherals at AA and AAA the last two years have been very good.

Kanekoa Texeira, RHRP: High GB%. Would not mind seeing him compete for a bullpen spot.

Collin Curtis, OF: According to minor-league splits, he is solid with the glove in center and very good in the corners, although a larger sample size would help. Unfortunately, that is the sum of his value. Could provide value as a fifth outfielder depending on the makeup of the Mets outfield next year (a young Endy Chavez?). Too bad he cannot pinch-run.

Steven Singleton, 2B/SS: Middle infielder with some pop and has generally shown a very good glove at second. We already let go of Wilson Valdez, but Singleton could be worth considering in a later round.

Josh Wilkie, RHRP: Solid minor league numbers throughout, really turned it on after promotion to AAA in late July.

Neil Wagner, RHRP: Excellent K, very good GB rate in AA last year.

Josh Tomlin, RHRP: A bit old for Advanced A-Ball and AA the last two years (23/24), but the numbers have been very good. A flyball pitcher, he could be worth it as a mop-up man next year while providing some upside down the road.

Amalio Diaz, RHSP: Limited upside, but solid AA numbers at 22. See Tomlin. Update: Stephen Smith from Future Angels sent me an email saying Diaz is:

An organizational player, in my opinion.  He doesn’t have the velocity or a”plus” pitch that would make him a major league prospect.  At Double-A Arkansas this year, he was awful as a starter, moved into the bullpen in
mid-May and did quite well, got some spot starts the rest of the way.  I wouldn’t waste a major league roster spot protecting him for a full year.

That should cross him off the list.

Buy-Low Candidates: Hank Blalock and Austin Kearns

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In light of the Yankees once again reclaiming their spot atop the baseball universe, it is only fitting we talk about undervalued assets on the market. Around this time last year, the Yankees acquired Nick Swisher from the Chicago White Sox, for Wilson Betemit and C-Grade prospects Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez.

Swisher was coming off a year in which he provided below average offense, hitting just .219/.332/.410 with a .325 wOBA. Despite accumulating almost 600 plate appearances, Swisher was just a one win player in 2008. Not to mention he was strikeout prone, with a 27.2% K rate.

Otherwise, however, there was a lot to like about Swisher. From 2006-2007 with the Oakland Athletics, Swisher had an OPS. of .864 and .836, and a wOBA of .368 and .361, respectively; he was a 3-3.5 win player. Unlike both the A’s and the White Sox, the Yankees realized Swisher left a lot to be desired at both first and center field, and instead confined him to right field; he had a history of playing well in the corners. Plus, Swisher’s game dovetailed with the new Yankee Stadium, where he could take advantage of the short right field porch at the plate.

Most importantly, however, Swisher had an  BABIP of a .251. According to the very handy xBABIP tool, however, Swisher’s project line looked something more like .255/.368/.455. with an xBABIP of .300.

Swisher went on to post an .869 OPS. and .375 wOBA in 2009. His defense was just average, and his BABIP did not rebound as expected (.277), but even a 20-30 point difference can make a significant difference in a guy’s value (see Adrian Gonzalez). Overall he was worth 3.5 wins, or about $16 million dollars.

If Omar and co. are smart, there are a few similar moves the Mets can make that can potentially equally benefit them.

Hank Blalock:  Throughout his seven year career in the big leagues, Blalock has gone from a young, borderline all-star, to a below average third baseman, to a very good but oft-injured player without a position.

By all indications, Blalock can hit. In 258 at-bats in 2008, he hit .287/.338/.508 with a .361 wOBA. In 2009, he hit .234/.277/.459 with a .313 wOBA. If you adjust for his .252 BABIP, however, his line improves to .275/.314/.512. The .OBP might seem like a drag, but Blalock has such incredible raw power (.225 ISOP), that his wOBA (.370), is actually above average for a first baseman.

I am not that concerned about Blalock’s home/away splits; he was actually over 100 OPS. points better on the road than at home last year. Obviously, the biggest concern is health. Lingering back issues go beyond missing playing time; you will have always have swing problems with a sore back- just ask Eric Duncan.

Blalock’s defense at first is a question mark; he was awful in his first stint last year, but according to UZR was very good in 66 games this year. After his 2003-2004 heyday, he was very bad at third. For now, we’ll just assume he is an average defender (0.0 UZR). Over a full season, Blalock would likely be a 2.5-3 win player.

In other words, if the Mets don’t trade for Adrian Gonzalez,  decide Daniel Murphy is not good enough, and are ready to move on from the Carlos Delgado era.  it is a toss up between Blalock and Nick Johnson on the free agent market. A few years back, Johnson’s defense would have made that an easy decision. Now, with his diminishing range, I would rather go with the younger uncertainty in Blalock. It is difficult to say who is the bigger injury risk. Whatever the case, I think Blalock will come far cheaper.

Austin Kearns: The Nationals just declined Kearn’s $10 million dollar option for 2010, making him a free agent. The seventh overall pick back in 1998, Kearns made it to the big leagues in 2002, hitting .315/.407/.500 in 372 at-bats. Ticketed for stardom, he instead struggled with injuries over the next few years.

Still, between Cincinatti and Washington, Kearns put up two full healthy seasns from 2006-2007, hitting a combined .266/.356/.438, .361 wOBA, making him worth $15-$16 million per year, as he saved 15-16 runs per year with his defense alone.

Kearns has struggled mightily the last two years, however. In 2008, he hit just .217/.311/.316 .287 wOBA in 357 plate appearances. In 2009, he got just 211 plate appearances hitting .195/.336/.305 .298 wOBA. His BABIP those two years have been .251 and .258, respectively. His adjusted line looks something like:

2008 (xBABIP .303): ..259/.347/.364

2009 (xBABIP .326): .242/.355/.377

The .OBP. is encouraging- Kearns knows how to take a walk. But while his new punch n’ judy-like numbers might work in center field, they are concerning for a corner outfielder. Stiil, Kearns, over a full season, is worth a little over 2 wins, or around $10 million dollars, when you factor in his defense. If he can get his SLG% over .400 (very likely, given his track record and the move from Washington to Citi Field), than he would be around a 3 win player.

Kearns could spot whoever our corner outfielders are next year, and provided some right-handed pop off the bench. The Mets could certainly use his added range in Citi field. He is not an obvious candidate, but if healthy- he would probably sign an incentive laden deal- he can be a very useful piece to have around next year.

2010 Minor League Free Agents to Consider: Part I

Compiling depth at the big league level has never been one of Omar Minaya’s strong suits. To his credit, Angel Pagan, Gary Sheffield, and Fernando Tatis have proven to be solid finds. Perhaps the Mets would have boasted one of the stronger benches over the last few years had Omar not mismanaged the starting lineup to begin with?

 As I have illustrated on this blog many times before, Omar is incapable of managing this team on the margins. Usually, my criticism is confined to players who receive significant playing time, and in some cases cost millions in dollars when better options can be had for pennies on the dollar: The Mets spent well over $10 combined per season to pay Brian Schneider, Tim Redding, Alex Cora, Cory Sullivan, and Scott Schoenweis back in the day while failing to cut ties with Livan Hernandez until August.

But the Mets have also failed to sure up their AAA pipeline as well. You know, those third-string roster fillers that usually end up starting for weeks at a time for the Mets? In 2009 for instance, with the Mets outfield in shambles, in addition to Sullivan, the Mets relied on Jeremy Reed for 161 at-bats, and doled out nearly 91 to an overmatched Fernando Martinez, unnecessarily starting his arbitration clock. Not to mention guys such as Ramon Martinez, Anderson Hernandez, Angel Berroa, and Elemers Dessens. Buffalo correspondingly marched on to a 56-87 record, with a stud-laden roster that included Mike Lamb (.669 AAA OPS.), Andy Green (.709), Javier Castillo (.664), Emil Brown (.655), and a formidable catching duo of Robinson Cancel and Rene Rivera (.631/.675, respectively).

What seems like a minor, luck-influenced misstep is in fact a recurrent trade with Omar. remember, this is the same team that gave 125 at-bats to Carlos Gomez two years ago, who is yet to develop into a replacement level hitter, and god-knows how much to Marlon Anderson, Damion Easley, and David Newhan.

Fortunately, a solid AAA player can be had for about $150,000. Signing minor league free agents and other under-the-radar role players is like going on a shopping binge at the dollar store. If the Mets can find a Billy-Mays-like pitchman to convince anyone to play in Buffalo, they could very well strike gold.

The recently published list of minor league free agents contains no one eye-popping, but there a few names the Mets should strongly consider. Numero uno:

Chris Shelton: A 33rd round pick of the Pirates back in 2001, Shelton got his first real shot in the big leagues as a 25 year-old with the Tigers in 2005, posting a .299/.360/.510 line in 388 at-bats. He lived up to his reputation as a breakout candidate for 2006- for about two weeks. In the first 13 games of the season, Shelton hit nine homeruns. He naturally “struggled” the rest of the way, but still hit .273/.340/.466 overall in 373 at-bats. According to UZR, among qualified first basemen, Shelton was the third-best defensively in all of baseball, first in the American League.

Inexplicably, Shelton spent all of 2007 with the Tigers AAA team. After being traded to the Rangers before the 2008 season, Shelton has received just 103 combined big league at-bats. He has been hitting the snot out of the ball in AAA since, and played third base for most of 2009. Plus, he can even be an emergency backstop.

If the Mets retain Fernando Tatis, who is their main right-handed pinch hitter, there is no obvious room for Shelton. If Wright goes down, Tatis could conceivably play third for a few weeks, and Shawn Bowman is considered an excellent fielder with a little pop. However, if Tatis asks for $2-$3 million, I would let him walk. Across the diamond, if the Mets decide to start Daniel Murphy, he could back him up, or complement him in a platoon situation (although Nick Evans is a more appealing option on both fronts given his age).

Still, Shelton is a potentially vastly undervalued asset. At worst, he is a right-handed Chris Carter.

Wagner to Red Sox for Chris Carter, PTBNL

 

I’m somewhat perplexed by some of the criticism concerning the Billy Wagner deal. From my understanding, had the Mets decided not deal him before August 31st, they would owe him the remaining $3.5 million (including his buyout), left on his contract. Assuming the Mets declined his $8 million option for 2010 after this season,  they could than offer him arbitration. If Wagner accepted, the Mets could have either kept him, or traded him to a team in the off-season looking for a closer or expensive set-up man. If Wagner declined, he would have become a free agent and the Mets would net two compensatory draft picks.

In either case, the Mets would have been hedging on:

A) Wagner coming back at full strength.

B) A weak enough closer market.

C) A and B prove so true that a team is willing to fork over two top draft picks for an aging closer in a depressed economy.

Wagner’s looked impressive in two appearances since coming back. The way this season has gone, however, you never know. I’m not sure what to think about the closer market next winter; it’s undoubtedly seen better years.

I just don’t think the demand will be there. Even at a low price, the vast majority of teams just do not want to give up first round picks for relivers, period. If he accepts arbitration, the Mets would absolutely have to deal him- paying Wagner $6-$8 million next year would have been detrimental financially, since all indications say they will cut payroll to at least some extent next year. Likewise, they would suffer from the same demand problem- they might be forced to pick up Wagner’s contract to deal him for anything of value. In other words, the Mets would be paying over $5 million for say, two non-top-tier prospects.

Instead, the Mets not only rid themselves of any risk, but saving $3.5 million is not necessarily about the Wilpon’s making ends meet. As opposed to counting on compensatory draft picks, the Mets can simply reinvest that money toward Latin prospects of similar value, or sign next year’s Damien Magnifico. Maybe there is something  I am missing here, but I cannot understand why people overlook this factor.

That being said, I am not too excited about Chris Carter. Just because the Mets dish out $900,000 to Cory Sullivan does not mean you cannot pluck guys like Carter off the minor league free agent market (i.e. Valentino Pascucci). Still, he is extra depth, and no one saw Jack Cust or Fernando Tatis amounting to anything. Even the GCL prospect could prove interesting- Neftali Feliz was not much more than a throw-in when he was dealt to the Rangers in the Mark Teixeira deal back in 207.

Ollie vs. Gaudin

 

When The Yankees acquired Chad Gaudin on August 7th, I assumed an immensely undervalued asset such as him would at least cost the Bombers a token prospect.

$100,000. Brian Cashman probably paid Kevin Towers in cash.

Gaudin is hardly flawless. He struggles against left-handed batters, often lacks command, and has reliever written all over him. He is just 26, however, and if you watch him he has some pretty impressive stuff. Thus, in a lot of respects, he is similar to Oliver Perez, our $36 million dollar man.

Here is how the two young hurlers stack up against each other (age in parentheses).

Gaudin:

Year	IP	K/PA	BB/PA	HR/PA	GB%	FIP
2007 (24)	199.1	17.38	11.29	2.37	51	4.69
2008 (25)	90	18.56	9.57	2.88	39.1	4.14
2009 (26)	113	22.22	12.09	1.56	45.5	3.80

Perez:

Year	IP	K/PA	BB/PA	HR/PA	GB%	FIP.
2007 (25)	177	22.7	10.33	2.88	35	4.29
2008 (26)	194	21.3	12.4	2.83	34	4.66
2009 (27)	65.1	19.6	17.7	3.16	30	5.91

 

Excuse me while I go bang my head against the wall.

Mets Cut Ties with Hernandez

 

When Bobby Valentine was fired after the 2002 season, he said, referring to Steve Phillips, “And he stays?”

You can bet Livan Hernandez is feeling the same way right now.

Make no mistake, Hernandez was atrocious throughout his entire Mets tenure. Unfortunately, most fans were awed by his tidy 4.06 era. in his first three months in Flushing., ignoring his below average peripherals. Eventually, reality caught up with him; he posted a 6.55 era. after the All-Star break.

Despite this, the Mets are quite possibly the only team in baseball that can screw up releasing the poor guy. No longer will Metropolitan fans have to endure watching Hernandez  surrender a four run first inning. Replacing him will be Tim Redding’s 6.53 era. and $2.25 million price tag.

In case Omar and co. are interested, here are Mike Antonini’s AA stats:

GS	K/PA	BB/PA	HR/PA	FIP
16	18.7%	6.4%	2.34%	3.60

Its’ alright; Tobi Stoner or Lance Broadway will do.

Dumb and Dumber: Mets Edition

 

According to numerous sources, Gary Sheffield requested a contract extension from the Mets and was denied.

Apparently, Sheffield was so distraught by the possibility that a flailing ballclub has no interest in retaining an aging, oft-injured corner outfielder living off whatever offensive contributions compensate for his abysmal fielding, that hethreatened to leave the team. A late scratch from tonight’s lineup, Sheffield pinch hit in the eighth inning and struck out.

A lot of bloggers and analysts have rushed to Sheffield’s defense. As my good friend Joe Janish put it:

if you can find someone who WANTS to be in Flushing, I would be embracing him. Good luck trying to find anyone who wants to join this Mickey Mouse operation.

Sheffield has, at least relatively speaking, done a heck of a job at the plate. I understand it is not easy for a potential Hall of Famer to swallow the fact he is no longer wanted. To add insult to injury, when your rejected from the same team that dished out an impressive sum to Moises Alou, Orlando Hernandez, Brian Schneider, Alex Cora, Julio Franco, Marlon Anderson, Jose Valentin, etc. its easy to see why he feels slighted.

That being said, I still find it downright comical how some athletes cannot rationally assess themselves. Hey Gary, remember buddy: the Tigers are paying you $15 million to be here.

The other interesting aspect of this story is that when the Mets placed Sheffield on waivers August 12th, he was claimed by the Giants, only to be pulled back by the Mets. This means the Mets no longer have the option of leading him, and can now only either release him or place him on irrevocable waivers.

Even the most bullish of Mets fans will admit the Mets were officially finished by than. So why not take the third tier prospect and run with it?

There seems to be a recurrent trend concerning this team: they are so afraid of losing face. They are unequivocally convinced that veterans such as Sheffield, Fernando Tatis, and LivanHernandez (who should have been given a much shorter leash), bring with them a certain sliver of respectability that only a veteran could muster.

Nick Evans? Mike Antonini? Lucas Duda? Shawn Bowman?  Watch the ticket sales plummet. Let’s keep running out a recognizable figure. Mets fans are too ignorant to figure it out.

That’s the only explanation at this point- aside from utter incompetence.

Regardless,  as long as this is a precursor to Sheffield leaving, I’m feeling good. Nick Evans August numbers you ask?

.292/.358/.597.

In case anyone was doubting whether Jerry Manuel and the Mets entire ballclub have become completely apathetic toward how this team performs, the top of the fourth should confirm that reality. After Oliver Perez retired the first two batters of the inning, Matt Diaz singled to left. With Church at the plate, Perez picked off Diaz stealing second base, only for Diaz to run completely out of the baseline towards the infield grass, causing Daniel Murphy’s throw to ricochet off the helmet of Diaz, hitting Anderson Hernandez, who was covering second, in the left shoulder and allowing Diaz to advance to third.

Astonishingly, no one from the Mets came out to argue. Maybe Jerry Manuel can be forgiven for missing the play. But somebody- Razor Shines, Sandy Alomar, somebody on the Mets bench- saw Diaz blatantly step out of the baseline. Yes, the Mets are just waiting to be mathematically eliminated, but I have seen Sally League managers in relatively meaningless games do their part and go out and argue a close call.

To add insult to injury, the umpires refused to acknowledge any doubts about the play either. Of course, everybody on WFAN tomorrow will contend that this further reflects some crisis in umpiring. I would agree that dreadful calls seem more prevalent today, although I would argue that it is more likely fans have developed a confirmation bias than umpires have gotten progressively worse. These kind of plays only strengthen their case, however.  

To their credit, the Mets are winning 8-4 now. This team still has enough fight in them to dissipate any chance of landing Bryce Harper in next year’s draft.

The Mets and Roster Construction

During the Mets telecast on SNY a few nights ago, Ron Darling noted how Jerry Manuel told him “he would not reward mediocrity.”

Manuel has stayed true to his word: he does not award mediocrity. Instead, he awards replacement-level veterans with infinite opportunities.

For one, Brian Schneider’s currently hitting .192/.286/.336. Despite being a catcher, that level of production is still unacceptable. The Mets are going to have a decision to make next year behind the plate, with Josh Thole posting a .332/.401/.431  line at AA. It is questionable how Thole’s bat will play at the big league level, given his lack of power projection and the fact his numbers are probably inflated to some extent. Here is his batted ball ball distribution compared to the AA average:

	BABIP.	GB%	LD%	FB%	IF%
J. Thole	.365	55.1%	13.1%	31.5	6.3%
AA AVG.	.306 (Eastern League).	46%	15%	29%	8%

The B-Mets park plays well to hitters, which explains Thole’s home/road splits: .865 OPS./.384 BABIP, .805 OPS. .349 BABIP. That being said, considering he does not have much speed, his BBD suggests he will at least see some regression.

Thus, if Thole is not a sure bet to produce at the big league level next year, it is all-the-more important for the Mets to see what they have in Omir Santos.  Santos has shown some good pop for a catcher, hitting .257.297/407. Due to his low OBP. his OPS+ (82), is ten points shy of the league average. If you adjust for his BABIP, however, his batting average and OBP. jumps to .276 and .328, respectively, with even more power. By contrast, Schneider’s adjusted line is only .236/.269.

It’s true that Schneider has had better success with the bat in the past (2008 adjusted line: .275/.367/.388). Since Thole will undoubtedly be called up when rosters expand, however, one of them will have to go by than, and Schneider’s clearly fallen out of favor with the fan base. At the very least, they should give Santos the lion’s share of the playing time now.

 Meanwhile, Livan Henrnadez will get another shot in the rotation. Hernandez has predictably come back down to earth following the first three months of the season. Brad Holt is probably better off refining his stuff in AA. Lance Broadway or Mike Antonini can’t be any worse nonetheless.

The Mets have also shown no inclination to move Gary Sheffield, while Nick Evans value and development withers away in Buffalo. Maybe the Mets just want to showcase a healthy Sheffield, but every teams knows he is an injury risk regardless; an extra week at full strength is not going to fool anyone.

Of course, people will say, Omar’s just waiting for Schneider to go on a tare, or Hernandez to string together a few good starts so he can sell high. Most teams smart enough to contend, however, do not think like Omar; they don’t see Hernandez has a veteran who “stabilizes the back end of the rotation”, or Schneider as a “veteran presence.” They seem as easily replaceable commodities should the need for them ever even arise. 

At best, the Mets will receive a roster filler or cash considerations for each. The average fan tends to conflate C-level prospects and roster fillers. There is a clear distinction: Antonini, Lucas Duda, Eric Beaulac, etc. have a shot at playing in the big leagues. Jean Luc Blaquiere, Eric Brown, and [fill in A-Ball reliever] unfortunately do not.

I know I am nitpicking. I understand I probably sound repetitive. But even when this team completely falls off the map, they do a poor job of managing their roster, and they have to be called out for that.

Update: Oliver Perez and his Release Point

Here are Perez’s averages from yesterday’s start against Arizona, during which he walked six batters in 5.1 innings of work:

AVG. Vert Var.	AVG. Hor. Var.	AVG. Vert. R.P.	AVG. Hor R.P.
.316 (3.8 inches)	.247 (2.96 inches)	5.56 (5 ft. 6.7 inches)	2.39 (2 ft. 4.68 inches)

Perez had the most inconsistent release point, vertically and horizontally, he has had since coming back. His vertical release point was also the highest it has been as well, although not by any significant margin. As I mentioned in my article,  his average horizontal release point tends to vary, although that doesn’t seem to really affect him.

FYI, here are the numbers from his previous starts since returning from the DL:

Release Point Variation:

Date	Vertical Var.	Horizontal Var.
8/7 (SD)	.164 (1.97 inches)	.196 (2.35 inches)
8/1 (ARI)	.185 (2.22 inches)	.18 (2.16 inches)
7/27 (COL)	.153 (1.84 inches)	.194 (2.33 inches)
7/21 (WAS)	.19 (2.28 inches)	.196 (2.35 inches)
7/16 (ATL)	.246 (2.95 inches)	.206 (2.47 inches)
7/8 (LAD)	.144 (1.73 inches)	.197 (2.36 inches)

Average Release Point:

Data	AVG. Vertical R.P.	AVG. Horizontal R.P.
8/7 (SD)	5.24 (5 ft. 2.88 inches)	2.24 (2 ft. 2.88 inches)
8/1 (ARI)	5.53 (5 ft. 6.36 inches)	2.24 (2 ft. 2.88 inches)
7/27 (COL)	5.44 ( 5 ft. 5.28 inches)	2.23 (2 ft. 2.76 inches)
7/21 (WAS)	5.4 (5 ft 4.8 inches)	2.51 (2 ft. 6.12 inches)
7/16 (ATL)	5.5 (5 ft. 6 inches)	2.4 (2 ft. 4.8 inches)
7/8 (LAD)	5.39 (5 ft. 4.68 inches)	2.09 (2ft. 1.08 inches)