Mets Cut Ties with Hernandez

 

When Bobby Valentine was fired after the 2002 season, he said, referring to Steve Phillips, “And he stays?”

You can bet Livan Hernandez is feeling the same way right now.

Make no mistake, Hernandez was atrocious throughout his entire Mets tenure. Unfortunately, most fans were awed by his tidy 4.06 era. in his first three months in Flushing., ignoring his below average peripherals. Eventually, reality caught up with him; he posted a 6.55 era. after the All-Star break.

Despite this, the Mets are quite possibly the only team in baseball that can screw up releasing the poor guy. No longer will Metropolitan fans have to endure watching Hernandez  surrender a four run first inning. Replacing him will be Tim Redding’s 6.53 era. and $2.25 million price tag.

In case Omar and co. are interested, here are Mike Antonini’s AA stats:

GS	K/PA	BB/PA	HR/PA	FIP
16	18.7%	6.4%	2.34%	3.60

Its’ alright; Tobi Stoner or Lance Broadway will do.

The Mets and Roster Construction

During the Mets telecast on SNY a few nights ago, Ron Darling noted how Jerry Manuel told him “he would not reward mediocrity.”

Manuel has stayed true to his word: he does not award mediocrity. Instead, he awards replacement-level veterans with infinite opportunities.

For one, Brian Schneider’s currently hitting .192/.286/.336. Despite being a catcher, that level of production is still unacceptable. The Mets are going to have a decision to make next year behind the plate, with Josh Thole posting a .332/.401/.431  line at AA. It is questionable how Thole’s bat will play at the big league level, given his lack of power projection and the fact his numbers are probably inflated to some extent. Here is his batted ball ball distribution compared to the AA average:

	BABIP.	GB%	LD%	FB%	IF%
J. Thole	.365	55.1%	13.1%	31.5	6.3%
AA AVG.	.306 (Eastern League).	46%	15%	29%	8%

The B-Mets park plays well to hitters, which explains Thole’s home/road splits: .865 OPS./.384 BABIP, .805 OPS. .349 BABIP. That being said, considering he does not have much speed, his BBD suggests he will at least see some regression.

Thus, if Thole is not a sure bet to produce at the big league level next year, it is all-the-more important for the Mets to see what they have in Omir Santos.  Santos has shown some good pop for a catcher, hitting .257.297/407. Due to his low OBP. his OPS+ (82), is ten points shy of the league average. If you adjust for his BABIP, however, his batting average and OBP. jumps to .276 and .328, respectively, with even more power. By contrast, Schneider’s adjusted line is only .236/.269.

It’s true that Schneider has had better success with the bat in the past (2008 adjusted line: .275/.367/.388). Since Thole will undoubtedly be called up when rosters expand, however, one of them will have to go by than, and Schneider’s clearly fallen out of favor with the fan base. At the very least, they should give Santos the lion’s share of the playing time now.

 Meanwhile, Livan Henrnadez will get another shot in the rotation. Hernandez has predictably come back down to earth following the first three months of the season. Brad Holt is probably better off refining his stuff in AA. Lance Broadway or Mike Antonini can’t be any worse nonetheless.

The Mets have also shown no inclination to move Gary Sheffield, while Nick Evans value and development withers away in Buffalo. Maybe the Mets just want to showcase a healthy Sheffield, but every teams knows he is an injury risk regardless; an extra week at full strength is not going to fool anyone.

Of course, people will say, Omar’s just waiting for Schneider to go on a tare, or Hernandez to string together a few good starts so he can sell high. Most teams smart enough to contend, however, do not think like Omar; they don’t see Hernandez has a veteran who “stabilizes the back end of the rotation”, or Schneider as a “veteran presence.” They seem as easily replaceable commodities should the need for them ever even arise. 

At best, the Mets will receive a roster filler or cash considerations for each. The average fan tends to conflate C-level prospects and roster fillers. There is a clear distinction: Antonini, Lucas Duda, Eric Beaulac, etc. have a shot at playing in the big leagues. Jean Luc Blaquiere, Eric Brown, and [fill in A-Ball reliever] unfortunately do not.

I know I am nitpicking. I understand I probably sound repetitive. But even when this team completely falls off the map, they do a poor job of managing their roster, and they have to be called out for that.