Dumb and Dumber: Mets Edition

 

According to numerous sources, Gary Sheffield requested a contract extension from the Mets and was denied.

Apparently, Sheffield was so distraught by the possibility that a flailing ballclub has no interest in retaining an aging, oft-injured corner outfielder living off whatever offensive contributions compensate for his abysmal fielding, that hethreatened to leave the team. A late scratch from tonight’s lineup, Sheffield pinch hit in the eighth inning and struck out.

A lot of bloggers and analysts have rushed to Sheffield’s defense. As my good friend Joe Janish put it:

if you can find someone who WANTS to be in Flushing, I would be embracing him. Good luck trying to find anyone who wants to join this Mickey Mouse operation.

Sheffield has, at least relatively speaking, done a heck of a job at the plate. I understand it is not easy for a potential Hall of Famer to swallow the fact he is no longer wanted. To add insult to injury, when your rejected from the same team that dished out an impressive sum to Moises Alou, Orlando Hernandez, Brian Schneider, Alex Cora, Julio Franco, Marlon Anderson, Jose Valentin, etc. its easy to see why he feels slighted.

That being said, I still find it downright comical how some athletes cannot rationally assess themselves. Hey Gary, remember buddy: the Tigers are paying you $15 million to be here.

The other interesting aspect of this story is that when the Mets placed Sheffield on waivers August 12th, he was claimed by the Giants, only to be pulled back by the Mets. This means the Mets no longer have the option of leading him, and can now only either release him or place him on irrevocable waivers.

Even the most bullish of Mets fans will admit the Mets were officially finished by than. So why not take the third tier prospect and run with it?

There seems to be a recurrent trend concerning this team: they are so afraid of losing face. They are unequivocally convinced that veterans such as Sheffield, Fernando Tatis, and LivanHernandez (who should have been given a much shorter leash), bring with them a certain sliver of respectability that only a veteran could muster.

Nick Evans? Mike Antonini? Lucas Duda? Shawn Bowman?  Watch the ticket sales plummet. Let’s keep running out a recognizable figure. Mets fans are too ignorant to figure it out.

That’s the only explanation at this point- aside from utter incompetence.

Regardless,  as long as this is a precursor to Sheffield leaving, I’m feeling good. Nick Evans August numbers you ask?

.292/.358/.597.

Mets and Roster Construction Part II

 

 

Update: Apparently, the Mets have promoted Andy Green. Shoot me now.

As most of you know, David Wright hit the DL yesterday with a concussion after being hit by a pitch in the head by the Giant’s Matt Cain Sunday. Everyone else around the blosphere has offered their two cents on the morality issue here- Ill just say I agree with my friend Jack Flynn’s take at his blog. I’m in no mood for a fluff peice today.

Instead, I’ll continue to look Omar a and co.’s incompotence when it comes to roster management following an injury.

Fernando Tatis’s line right now is .250/.311/.412. Even if you account for his xBABIP (.282), his AVG./OBP. improves marginally:  .264/.312.  For a 34 year-old those numbers are maybe- just maybe- tolerable for a bench player. To play everyday for at least two weeks on a team going nowhere is inexcusable.

Nck Evans has hit .255/.301/.405 in 153 career at-bats in the big leagues. It’s safe to safe the Daniel Murphy experiment at first base has failed; his future with the team right now is as a utility infielder. Thus,  if the Mets decide to promote Evans, Murphy can accumulate some reps. at third for the time being, while Evans plays first until Wright returns. Make no mistake, Ike Davis is a better prospect than Evans, but given this is Davis’s first full season in pro-ball, the Mets will wisely let him finish the season in AA.

If the Mets still have faith in Murphy, the case can be made for promoting Shawn Bowman. Bowman, 24, has been battling major back issues since 2005, more or less sapping all his playing time entering this year. In fact, he just returned Friday after suffering a lower back strain in the beginning of July. He has held his own in 328 plate appearances with Binghamton this year, hitting .292/.341/.445, and has always been known for his slick glove (people used to say in 2004 he would move Wright to first).

Bowman was drafted in the 12th round out of high school in 2002. He has got to be the only kid drafted that late, played in the same organizatin seven years, and not made an appearance in the big leagues.

The Mets and Roster Construction

During the Mets telecast on SNY a few nights ago, Ron Darling noted how Jerry Manuel told him “he would not reward mediocrity.”

Manuel has stayed true to his word: he does not award mediocrity. Instead, he awards replacement-level veterans with infinite opportunities.

For one, Brian Schneider’s currently hitting .192/.286/.336. Despite being a catcher, that level of production is still unacceptable. The Mets are going to have a decision to make next year behind the plate, with Josh Thole posting a .332/.401/.431  line at AA. It is questionable how Thole’s bat will play at the big league level, given his lack of power projection and the fact his numbers are probably inflated to some extent. Here is his batted ball ball distribution compared to the AA average:

	BABIP.	GB%	LD%	FB%	IF%
J. Thole	.365	55.1%	13.1%	31.5	6.3%
AA AVG.	.306 (Eastern League).	46%	15%	29%	8%

The B-Mets park plays well to hitters, which explains Thole’s home/road splits: .865 OPS./.384 BABIP, .805 OPS. .349 BABIP. That being said, considering he does not have much speed, his BBD suggests he will at least see some regression.

Thus, if Thole is not a sure bet to produce at the big league level next year, it is all-the-more important for the Mets to see what they have in Omir Santos.  Santos has shown some good pop for a catcher, hitting .257.297/407. Due to his low OBP. his OPS+ (82), is ten points shy of the league average. If you adjust for his BABIP, however, his batting average and OBP. jumps to .276 and .328, respectively, with even more power. By contrast, Schneider’s adjusted line is only .236/.269.

It’s true that Schneider has had better success with the bat in the past (2008 adjusted line: .275/.367/.388). Since Thole will undoubtedly be called up when rosters expand, however, one of them will have to go by than, and Schneider’s clearly fallen out of favor with the fan base. At the very least, they should give Santos the lion’s share of the playing time now.

 Meanwhile, Livan Henrnadez will get another shot in the rotation. Hernandez has predictably come back down to earth following the first three months of the season. Brad Holt is probably better off refining his stuff in AA. Lance Broadway or Mike Antonini can’t be any worse nonetheless.

The Mets have also shown no inclination to move Gary Sheffield, while Nick Evans value and development withers away in Buffalo. Maybe the Mets just want to showcase a healthy Sheffield, but every teams knows he is an injury risk regardless; an extra week at full strength is not going to fool anyone.

Of course, people will say, Omar’s just waiting for Schneider to go on a tare, or Hernandez to string together a few good starts so he can sell high. Most teams smart enough to contend, however, do not think like Omar; they don’t see Hernandez has a veteran who “stabilizes the back end of the rotation”, or Schneider as a “veteran presence.” They seem as easily replaceable commodities should the need for them ever even arise. 

At best, the Mets will receive a roster filler or cash considerations for each. The average fan tends to conflate C-level prospects and roster fillers. There is a clear distinction: Antonini, Lucas Duda, Eric Beaulac, etc. have a shot at playing in the big leagues. Jean Luc Blaquiere, Eric Brown, and [fill in A-Ball reliever] unfortunately do not.

I know I am nitpicking. I understand I probably sound repetitive. But even when this team completely falls off the map, they do a poor job of managing their roster, and they have to be called out for that.

Balentien, Evans, and Other Stuff to Look Forward to

The Mets announced today that they are placing Gary Sheffield on the DL retroactive to July 17th. That means Sheffield won’t return until August 2nd, leaving the Mets with a gaping hole in left field the next eight games, including tonight’s contest. In other words, Nick Evans can easily accumulate 30-40 at-bats over that times period. Afterwards. once Sheffield proves himself healthy, the Mets should trade him elsewhere. Perfect. Unfortunately, Omar and Jerry probably prefer “trying to get Fernando Tatis’s bat going” or cash in on their $900,000 investment in Cory Sullivan.

In other news, the Mariners DFA’d Wladimir Balentien. The Mets should look into acquiring him to play center (left, if they really hat Evans that much), or at least stash him in Buffalo. I like Angel Pagan- he has a quick bat and has hit well so far in limited action (.310/.361/.425). Like the Francoeur move, however, if Balentien can untap his potential, it can pay huge dividends for the Mets.

Last year, Balentien made his major league debut with Seattle and hit .202/.250/.342 in 260 plate appearances. His xBABIP was .306. This year, in 170 plate appearances,he has hit  .213/.271/.355. ZIPS does not project him to hit all that better the rest of the way (.703 OPS). His plate discipline is more or less the same as Jeff Francoeur’s, and his fielding is terrible.

Still, he’s got less than 400 at-bats under his belt in the big leagues. He is also just two years removed from mashing AAA and being rated the Mariners number five prospect. Like most young hitters, he can hit a fastball a mile, but struggles with off-speed stuff.  We are not going to see the likes of Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, or Fernando Martinez until September, so there is no reason not to try and strike gold with him. I’m guessing  he’ll cost something of similar value (Lance Broadway?) or a C-level prospect (Mike Antonini, Sean Ratliff, etc.), but nothing the Mets should lose sleep over.

Fernando Nieve to DL; Cory Sullivan to Bigs

Not much to say about Nieve.  His peripherals were terrible, and if it weren’t for his Jorge Sosa esque first couple of starts, Jon Niese would already be here. Still, he has never really gotten a fair shake in the big leagues (just 143.2 career innings), and has the stuff to make him a serviceable reliever or starter elsewhere. Best of luck to him.

Taking his place will be Cory Sullivan. Sullivan, a seventh round pick for the Rockies back in 2001, is yet another player in the Angel Pagan/Jeremy Reed mold. It’s mind-boggling enough to watch this team’s free-fall. To watch them lose with just two players (Daniel Murphy and Jeff Francoeur), who have any reasonable chance of improving is becoming more boring by the day . No wonder why so many average fans seem psyched about Niese’s performance lately.

What’s more interesting is why Sullivan got the nod over Nick Evans. Jerry Manuel’s argument that Sullivan is “more versatile” than Evans in bunk.  This year, Sullivan, a natural center fielder, has played center almost exclusively for the Bisons. In fact, over his entire major league career (355 games), he has played just 27 games in left and 14 in right. In six seasons in the minors, he played just 47 in right and 57 in left. Since 2007, he played a grand total of eight games in the corner outfield spots. Glancing over his defensive stats, he is not particularly good in the outfield period. 

This tells me that the Mets think Gary Sheffield should be back any day now, and don’t want to take the trouble to promote Evans and send him down before Saturday (when Niese will start).  If the Mets once again (purposely or not) underestimated Sheffield’s injury, however, this costs Evans another oppurtunity in the majors for a team that is more or less done and needs to find out about its’ young talent.