Ollie vs. Gaudin

 

When The Yankees acquired Chad Gaudin on August 7th, I assumed an immensely undervalued asset such as him would at least cost the Bombers a token prospect.

$100,000. Brian Cashman probably paid Kevin Towers in cash.

Gaudin is hardly flawless. He struggles against left-handed batters, often lacks command, and has reliever written all over him. He is just 26, however, and if you watch him he has some pretty impressive stuff. Thus, in a lot of respects, he is similar to Oliver Perez, our $36 million dollar man.

Here is how the two young hurlers stack up against each other (age in parentheses).

Gaudin:

Year	IP	K/PA	BB/PA	HR/PA	GB%	FIP
2007 (24)	199.1	17.38	11.29	2.37	51	4.69
2008 (25)	90	18.56	9.57	2.88	39.1	4.14
2009 (26)	113	22.22	12.09	1.56	45.5	3.80

Perez:

Year	IP	K/PA	BB/PA	HR/PA	GB%	FIP.
2007 (25)	177	22.7	10.33	2.88	35	4.29
2008 (26)	194	21.3	12.4	2.83	34	4.66
2009 (27)	65.1	19.6	17.7	3.16	30	5.91

 

Excuse me while I go bang my head against the wall.

Update: Oliver Perez and his Release Point

Here are Perez’s averages from yesterday’s start against Arizona, during which he walked six batters in 5.1 innings of work:

AVG. Vert Var.	AVG. Hor. Var.	AVG. Vert. R.P.	AVG. Hor R.P.
.316 (3.8 inches)	.247 (2.96 inches)	5.56 (5 ft. 6.7 inches)	2.39 (2 ft. 4.68 inches)

Perez had the most inconsistent release point, vertically and horizontally, he has had since coming back. His vertical release point was also the highest it has been as well, although not by any significant margin. As I mentioned in my article,  his average horizontal release point tends to vary, although that doesn’t seem to really affect him.

FYI, here are the numbers from his previous starts since returning from the DL:

Release Point Variation:

Date	Vertical Var.	Horizontal Var.
8/7 (SD)	.164 (1.97 inches)	.196 (2.35 inches)
8/1 (ARI)	.185 (2.22 inches)	.18 (2.16 inches)
7/27 (COL)	.153 (1.84 inches)	.194 (2.33 inches)
7/21 (WAS)	.19 (2.28 inches)	.196 (2.35 inches)
7/16 (ATL)	.246 (2.95 inches)	.206 (2.47 inches)
7/8 (LAD)	.144 (1.73 inches)	.197 (2.36 inches)

Average Release Point:

Data	AVG. Vertical R.P.	AVG. Horizontal R.P.
8/7 (SD)	5.24 (5 ft. 2.88 inches)	2.24 (2 ft. 2.88 inches)
8/1 (ARI)	5.53 (5 ft. 6.36 inches)	2.24 (2 ft. 2.88 inches)
7/27 (COL)	5.44 ( 5 ft. 5.28 inches)	2.23 (2 ft. 2.76 inches)
7/21 (WAS)	5.4 (5 ft 4.8 inches)	2.51 (2 ft. 6.12 inches)
7/16 (ATL)	5.5 (5 ft. 6 inches)	2.4 (2 ft. 4.8 inches)
7/8 (LAD)	5.39 (5 ft. 4.68 inches)	2.09 (2ft. 1.08 inches)

A Sign of things to Come?

Jerry Manuel deserves credit for usually putting a humorous spin on another of Oliver Perez’s dreadful outings. I always picture him lying back in the manager’s office at Citi Field, his hands clasped behind his head, telling reporters “Ollie’s in a funk right now” and sounding a bullish note about Perez’s eccentrics with an autographed Jon Malo photo in a gold plated frame in the background.

Manuel didn’t have to defend Ollie last night, despite a crushing 6-2 lost to the Padres. Since returning from the DL on July 8^th, Perez has been hampered by control problems; entering tonight, he compiled 26 walks in 27 innings of work, giving him a 20% walk rate. To put that in perspective, among qualified pitchers, Pirates southpaw Tom Gorzelanny has the highest walk rate in baseball at 14.29%

As the convenient SNY narrative goes, Dan Warthen advised Perez to take an extended pause when he lifts his legs. As a result, Perez’s mechanics were smooth last night, enabling him to allow just two walks over 6.1 innings of one-run ball.

I’m no pitching guru, so I really wasn’t all that skeptical about this. Using pitch f/x info, I looked for any concrete adjustments Perez made. The first thing I looked at was how consistent Perez’s release point was. The general consensus is that a consistent arm slot contributed mightily towards Perez’s solid outing. After all, control is all about finding a solid, comfortable release point.

To do this, I took his vertical and horizontal release points, and found the standard deviation between each. I did this for his start last night, as well as all his other walk-laden outings since he came back. (For those not familiar with this, Josh Kalk wrote a nice primer over at The Hardball Times last September concerning repeatable release points and pitcher effectiveness.)

Date	Vertical Var.	Horizontal Var.
8/7 (SD)	.164 (1.97 inches)	.196 (2.35 inches)
8/1 (ARI)	.185 (2.22 inches)	.18 (2.16 inches)
7/27 (COL)	.153 (1.84 inches)	.194 (2.33 inches)
7/21 (WAS)	.19 (2.28 inches)	.196 (2.35 inches)
7/16 (ATL)	.246 (2.95 inches)	.206 (2.47 inches)
7/8 (LAD)	.144 (1.73 inches)	.197 (2.36 inches)

To begin with, having almost two inches of variation is undoubtedly below average. Despite all the talk of keeping his front shoulder closed, his horizontal release point is still a major problem. That being said, if you look at his variation, last night certainly wasn’t his worth outing consistency wise. Regardless, as you can see, it does not appear it should make much of a difference anyways. His release point was actually more consistent against Colorado, during which he walked four batters in five innings, and against the Dodgers, where he allowed seven walks in five innings.

Next, I went to see if his actual release point changed throughout all his outings: 

Data	AVG. Vertical R.P.	AVG. Horizontal R.P.
8/7 (SD)	5.24 (5 ft. 2.88 inches)	2.24 (2 ft. 2.88 inches)
8/1 (ARI)	5.53 (5 ft. 6.36 inches)	2.24 (2 ft. 2.88 inches)
7/27 (COL)	5.44 ( 5 ft. 5.28 inches)	2.23 (2 ft. 2.76 inches)
7/21 (WAS)	5.4 (5 ft 4.8 inches)	2.51 (2 ft. 6.12 inches)
7/16 (ATL)	5.5 (5 ft. 6 inches)	2.4 (2 ft. 8 inches)
7/8 (LAD)	5.39 (5 ft. 4.68 inches)	2.09 (2ft. 1.08 inches)

Again, Perez didn’t seem to make any adjustments with his horizontal release point. It does look, however, that he lowered his vertical release point 2-3 inches. I found this kind of surprising, since we usually associate Ollie’s wildness when he classically drops his arm angle down.

To be honest, I don’t if or how this would affect his command. I’m just logging the results. Going back to the pause, I do know that properly planting your plant foot towards the plate plays a major part in throwing strikes- although I guess in turn it would reflect his release point.

If not, though, there are reasons to think Perez’s successful outing was a mirage, and doesn’t say much about him going forward. For one, the Padres can be your prototypical collection of overly aggressive youngsters. They are ranked 14^th in the National League in OBP. (.313), just two points ahead of Cincinnati and San Francisco, who are tied for last, and are ninth in walks (one ahead of the Mets in fact). To their credit, they take a decent amount of pitches per plate appearance (3.85 P/PA- league average is 3.82)

Last night, they seemed very patient (4.04 P/PA). Perez’s average P/PA since returning, however, is 4.08.

Of course, maybe Perez was simply due for an outing like this; a 20% walk rate is probably unsustainable over the long run, even for Ollie. If he can string a few good outings together, we should be able to make some better observations.