Buy-Low Candidates: Hank Blalock and Austin Kearns

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In light of the Yankees once again reclaiming their spot atop the baseball universe, it is only fitting we talk about undervalued assets on the market. Around this time last year, the Yankees acquired Nick Swisher from the Chicago White Sox, for Wilson Betemit and C-Grade prospects Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez.

Swisher was coming off a year in which he provided below average offense, hitting just .219/.332/.410 with a .325 wOBA. Despite accumulating almost 600 plate appearances, Swisher was just a one win player in 2008. Not to mention he was strikeout prone, with a 27.2% K rate.

Otherwise, however, there was a lot to like about Swisher. From 2006-2007 with the Oakland Athletics, Swisher had an OPS. of .864 and .836, and a wOBA of .368 and .361, respectively; he was a 3-3.5 win player. Unlike both the A’s and the White Sox, the Yankees realized Swisher left a lot to be desired at both first and center field, and instead confined him to right field; he had a history of playing well in the corners. Plus, Swisher’s game dovetailed with the new Yankee Stadium, where he could take advantage of the short right field porch at the plate.

Most importantly, however, Swisher had an  BABIP of a .251. According to the very handy xBABIP tool, however, Swisher’s project line looked something more like .255/.368/.455. with an xBABIP of .300.

Swisher went on to post an .869 OPS. and .375 wOBA in 2009. His defense was just average, and his BABIP did not rebound as expected (.277), but even a 20-30 point difference can make a significant difference in a guy’s value (see Adrian Gonzalez). Overall he was worth 3.5 wins, or about $16 million dollars.

If Omar and co. are smart, there are a few similar moves the Mets can make that can potentially equally benefit them.

Hank Blalock:  Throughout his seven year career in the big leagues, Blalock has gone from a young, borderline all-star, to a below average third baseman, to a very good but oft-injured player without a position.

By all indications, Blalock can hit. In 258 at-bats in 2008, he hit .287/.338/.508 with a .361 wOBA. In 2009, he hit .234/.277/.459 with a .313 wOBA. If you adjust for his .252 BABIP, however, his line improves to .275/.314/.512. The .OBP might seem like a drag, but Blalock has such incredible raw power (.225 ISOP), that his wOBA (.370), is actually above average for a first baseman.

I am not that concerned about Blalock’s home/away splits; he was actually over 100 OPS. points better on the road than at home last year. Obviously, the biggest concern is health. Lingering back issues go beyond missing playing time; you will have always have swing problems with a sore back- just ask Eric Duncan.

Blalock’s defense at first is a question mark; he was awful in his first stint last year, but according to UZR was very good in 66 games this year. After his 2003-2004 heyday, he was very bad at third. For now, we’ll just assume he is an average defender (0.0 UZR). Over a full season, Blalock would likely be a 2.5-3 win player.

In other words, if the Mets don’t trade for Adrian Gonzalez,  decide Daniel Murphy is not good enough, and are ready to move on from the Carlos Delgado era.  it is a toss up between Blalock and Nick Johnson on the free agent market. A few years back, Johnson’s defense would have made that an easy decision. Now, with his diminishing range, I would rather go with the younger uncertainty in Blalock. It is difficult to say who is the bigger injury risk. Whatever the case, I think Blalock will come far cheaper.

Austin Kearns: The Nationals just declined Kearn’s $10 million dollar option for 2010, making him a free agent. The seventh overall pick back in 1998, Kearns made it to the big leagues in 2002, hitting .315/.407/.500 in 372 at-bats. Ticketed for stardom, he instead struggled with injuries over the next few years.

Still, between Cincinatti and Washington, Kearns put up two full healthy seasns from 2006-2007, hitting a combined .266/.356/.438, .361 wOBA, making him worth $15-$16 million per year, as he saved 15-16 runs per year with his defense alone.

Kearns has struggled mightily the last two years, however. In 2008, he hit just .217/.311/.316 .287 wOBA in 357 plate appearances. In 2009, he got just 211 plate appearances hitting .195/.336/.305 .298 wOBA. His BABIP those two years have been .251 and .258, respectively. His adjusted line looks something like:

2008 (xBABIP .303): ..259/.347/.364

2009 (xBABIP .326): .242/.355/.377

The .OBP. is encouraging- Kearns knows how to take a walk. But while his new punch n’ judy-like numbers might work in center field, they are concerning for a corner outfielder. Stiil, Kearns, over a full season, is worth a little over 2 wins, or around $10 million dollars, when you factor in his defense. If he can get his SLG% over .400 (very likely, given his track record and the move from Washington to Citi Field), than he would be around a 3 win player.

Kearns could spot whoever our corner outfielders are next year, and provided some right-handed pop off the bench. The Mets could certainly use his added range in Citi field. He is not an obvious candidate, but if healthy- he would probably sign an incentive laden deal- he can be a very useful piece to have around next year.

Overbay/Evans Platoon in 2010?

I will have a more detailed follow-up to my 1500-word case for Roy Halladay over at Mets Today, but there is one another reason to like Lyle Overbay than I regret not mentioning. Overbay has traditionally fared immensely better vs. right-handers than southpaws over his career:

	Career	2009	2008	2007	2006
PA (RH/LH)	2890/948	414/86	461/166	361/115	473/167
OPS. (RH/LH)	.847/.711	.905/.534	.865./540	.676/.794	.949/.694

Aside from 2007, which coincidentally or not was undoubtedly Overbay’s worst season in the big leagues, there is a clear platoon split. I know there are a lot of questions regarding splits and how they tend to equalize over player’s careers (partly because of statistical regression, but I think increased exposure to same-side pitching contributes as well), but given Overbay would likely be only a one-year fix, the Mets should use this information to their advantage.

How? I have spent a lot of time here and elsewhere complaining about Nick Evan’s uncanny denial of playing time over the last two years. Ironically, after basically spending most of 2009 struggling between AAA and the majors, Evans trade value is far lower heading into 2010 than last year.

Except Evans could certainly help the Mets in this case; in 100 big league at-bats against southpaws, Evans has hit .320/.382/.490 , and he has raked against lefties in the minors. The Mets could be looking at $10 million+ in value, for just $7 million from Overbay and the league minimum from Evans.

 

2010 Minor League Free Agents to Consider: Part I

Compiling depth at the big league level has never been one of Omar Minaya’s strong suits. To his credit, Angel Pagan, Gary Sheffield, and Fernando Tatis have proven to be solid finds. Perhaps the Mets would have boasted one of the stronger benches over the last few years had Omar not mismanaged the starting lineup to begin with?

 As I have illustrated on this blog many times before, Omar is incapable of managing this team on the margins. Usually, my criticism is confined to players who receive significant playing time, and in some cases cost millions in dollars when better options can be had for pennies on the dollar: The Mets spent well over $10 combined per season to pay Brian Schneider, Tim Redding, Alex Cora, Cory Sullivan, and Scott Schoenweis back in the day while failing to cut ties with Livan Hernandez until August.

But the Mets have also failed to sure up their AAA pipeline as well. You know, those third-string roster fillers that usually end up starting for weeks at a time for the Mets? In 2009 for instance, with the Mets outfield in shambles, in addition to Sullivan, the Mets relied on Jeremy Reed for 161 at-bats, and doled out nearly 91 to an overmatched Fernando Martinez, unnecessarily starting his arbitration clock. Not to mention guys such as Ramon Martinez, Anderson Hernandez, Angel Berroa, and Elemers Dessens. Buffalo correspondingly marched on to a 56-87 record, with a stud-laden roster that included Mike Lamb (.669 AAA OPS.), Andy Green (.709), Javier Castillo (.664), Emil Brown (.655), and a formidable catching duo of Robinson Cancel and Rene Rivera (.631/.675, respectively).

What seems like a minor, luck-influenced misstep is in fact a recurrent trade with Omar. remember, this is the same team that gave 125 at-bats to Carlos Gomez two years ago, who is yet to develop into a replacement level hitter, and god-knows how much to Marlon Anderson, Damion Easley, and David Newhan.

Fortunately, a solid AAA player can be had for about $150,000. Signing minor league free agents and other under-the-radar role players is like going on a shopping binge at the dollar store. If the Mets can find a Billy-Mays-like pitchman to convince anyone to play in Buffalo, they could very well strike gold.

The recently published list of minor league free agents contains no one eye-popping, but there a few names the Mets should strongly consider. Numero uno:

Chris Shelton: A 33rd round pick of the Pirates back in 2001, Shelton got his first real shot in the big leagues as a 25 year-old with the Tigers in 2005, posting a .299/.360/.510 line in 388 at-bats. He lived up to his reputation as a breakout candidate for 2006- for about two weeks. In the first 13 games of the season, Shelton hit nine homeruns. He naturally “struggled” the rest of the way, but still hit .273/.340/.466 overall in 373 at-bats. According to UZR, among qualified first basemen, Shelton was the third-best defensively in all of baseball, first in the American League.

Inexplicably, Shelton spent all of 2007 with the Tigers AAA team. After being traded to the Rangers before the 2008 season, Shelton has received just 103 combined big league at-bats. He has been hitting the snot out of the ball in AAA since, and played third base for most of 2009. Plus, he can even be an emergency backstop.

If the Mets retain Fernando Tatis, who is their main right-handed pinch hitter, there is no obvious room for Shelton. If Wright goes down, Tatis could conceivably play third for a few weeks, and Shawn Bowman is considered an excellent fielder with a little pop. However, if Tatis asks for $2-$3 million, I would let him walk. Across the diamond, if the Mets decide to start Daniel Murphy, he could back him up, or complement him in a platoon situation (although Nick Evans is a more appealing option on both fronts given his age).

Still, Shelton is a potentially vastly undervalued asset. At worst, he is a right-handed Chris Carter.

Ollie vs. Gaudin

 

When The Yankees acquired Chad Gaudin on August 7th, I assumed an immensely undervalued asset such as him would at least cost the Bombers a token prospect.

$100,000. Brian Cashman probably paid Kevin Towers in cash.

Gaudin is hardly flawless. He struggles against left-handed batters, often lacks command, and has reliever written all over him. He is just 26, however, and if you watch him he has some pretty impressive stuff. Thus, in a lot of respects, he is similar to Oliver Perez, our $36 million dollar man.

Here is how the two young hurlers stack up against each other (age in parentheses).

Gaudin:

Year	IP	K/PA	BB/PA	HR/PA	GB%	FIP
2007 (24)	199.1	17.38	11.29	2.37	51	4.69
2008 (25)	90	18.56	9.57	2.88	39.1	4.14
2009 (26)	113	22.22	12.09	1.56	45.5	3.80

Perez:

Year	IP	K/PA	BB/PA	HR/PA	GB%	FIP.
2007 (25)	177	22.7	10.33	2.88	35	4.29
2008 (26)	194	21.3	12.4	2.83	34	4.66
2009 (27)	65.1	19.6	17.7	3.16	30	5.91

 

Excuse me while I go bang my head against the wall.

Update: Oliver Perez and his Release Point

Here are Perez’s averages from yesterday’s start against Arizona, during which he walked six batters in 5.1 innings of work:

AVG. Vert Var.	AVG. Hor. Var.	AVG. Vert. R.P.	AVG. Hor R.P.
.316 (3.8 inches)	.247 (2.96 inches)	5.56 (5 ft. 6.7 inches)	2.39 (2 ft. 4.68 inches)

Perez had the most inconsistent release point, vertically and horizontally, he has had since coming back. His vertical release point was also the highest it has been as well, although not by any significant margin. As I mentioned in my article,  his average horizontal release point tends to vary, although that doesn’t seem to really affect him.

FYI, here are the numbers from his previous starts since returning from the DL:

Release Point Variation:

Date	Vertical Var.	Horizontal Var.
8/7 (SD)	.164 (1.97 inches)	.196 (2.35 inches)
8/1 (ARI)	.185 (2.22 inches)	.18 (2.16 inches)
7/27 (COL)	.153 (1.84 inches)	.194 (2.33 inches)
7/21 (WAS)	.19 (2.28 inches)	.196 (2.35 inches)
7/16 (ATL)	.246 (2.95 inches)	.206 (2.47 inches)
7/8 (LAD)	.144 (1.73 inches)	.197 (2.36 inches)

Average Release Point:

Data	AVG. Vertical R.P.	AVG. Horizontal R.P.
8/7 (SD)	5.24 (5 ft. 2.88 inches)	2.24 (2 ft. 2.88 inches)
8/1 (ARI)	5.53 (5 ft. 6.36 inches)	2.24 (2 ft. 2.88 inches)
7/27 (COL)	5.44 ( 5 ft. 5.28 inches)	2.23 (2 ft. 2.76 inches)
7/21 (WAS)	5.4 (5 ft 4.8 inches)	2.51 (2 ft. 6.12 inches)
7/16 (ATL)	5.5 (5 ft. 6 inches)	2.4 (2 ft. 4.8 inches)
7/8 (LAD)	5.39 (5 ft. 4.68 inches)	2.09 (2ft. 1.08 inches)

Playing Under Tony Bernazard

 

I recently had an enlightening exchange with Teddy Dziuba over at my good friend and Sand Gnats beat reporter John Mackin Ade’s blog-Macks Mets- regarding what it was like to be a Mets prospect during the Tony Bernazard era. For those don’t know, Teddy, a catcher, was selected by the Mets in the 33rd round of the 2006 draft. He played sparingly for Brooklyn that year, than made stops in Kingsport, Savannah, St. Lucie, and Binghamton in 2007, before eventually being released by the Mets.

Teddy’s been blogging there a couple weeks now. His most recent post concerning Bernazard, however, caught my attention, so I thought I’d raise a few questions:

Matt: I hate to play devil’s advocate here, but the impression I get is that most organization’s prioritize individual performance above team performance.

I see what you mean about Bernazard fostering an atmosphere that was perhaps too competitive, pitting players against each other. But wouldn’t you admit there were players like yourself, who, talented as you are, weren’t considered first tier prospects, probably did secretly hope some players failed? Maybe not a team wide failure, but a guy whom you were competing with for playing time?

IMO, there’s a fine line between team performance and individual performance at the minor league level. Numerous prospects sacrifice short-term (season-long) pain for long term gain. For instance, an A-Ball pitcher might be better off performance wise if he blows away guy’s with his fastball, but he knows that if he wants to make it past AA, let alone succeed in the big leagues, he’ll have to work on say, his secondary stuff.

I’m not condoning what Bernazard did, but his job is to develop guys capable of playing in the big leagues. I could see where a guy in the situation above could get caught up in his team’s playoff race instead of worrying about his development.

Last but not least, not looking to start anything personal, but isn’t the American/Spanish divide often voluntary? Would you be able to elaborate on that point?

Teddy: I don’t think I was able to verbalize what I was trying to say in describing the culture of the Mets minor leagues. Let me preface the following comments by saying this: I never harbored the delusion that I was on the fast trackto the big leagues and during my playing career, I was well aware that the Mets were using me as cannon fodder…not that that was easy to swallow, but I was always self-aware and new that the road was going to end at some point

That being said, my biggest gripe with how things played out was that their was really no incentive for playing “smart” baseball in the Mets system…it was a system that encouraged coaches to toss blame at the players, and truly, it was more beneficial to “not screw up” than it was to do your job properly. Praise was thrown at certain prospects for not making certain mistakes instead of actually performing well.

It’s really hard to put into words, but it was a system of evaluation that was predicated on negativity. 2 examples:

Camp in 2007, I spoke to the speedy ss batting in front of me who lead off the inning. I told him, “if you get on, I’ll get in the catchers way on the first pitch so you can steal 2b” He walked, I fake bunted (on my own), catcher dropped the ball and the runner got a free stolen base. Next pitch, i rolled over a ground ball, got the runner to third with one out, and thought I had done my job. Instead of a pat on the ass for working with my teammate and getting the runner over, I was chastised for wasting the at bat and for not getting my pitch. Am I nitpicking? maybe, but this is the kind of stuff that pervaded the system

3 Days before my release in 2008, I went 4-4 with a home run, 2 doubles, 4 rbi and missed the cycle because I slipped rounding first base on the first double. After the game, the only thing my coach said to me was “you gotta work on your turns rounding first” He was serious…no “good game Ted”, no “way to hit em”, just another negative comment in a long line of negative comments that sapped players of their confidence and desire to continue working as hard.

I like to think of myself as a likeable guy Matt, and in the realm of minor league ballplayers, an ameable kid with no ego is hard to come by, so its not like I was treated any differently for any reason, it was just a system wide dynamic that forced players to think that its better to just not screw up than try and do that little extra at the expense of potentially being called out for it

Maybe I’m biased because I went to a college specializing in entrepreneurship, but baseball was always like jazz to me, players (especially catchers) constantly need to adapt and think on the fly to perform to their fullest. I just got the sense that such behavior was frowned upon. If a coach hadn’t expressly taught a certain aspect of the game, don’t even think of doing anything otherwise.

Maybe i’m placing too much blame on Tony himself, but he was the king of pointing out the flaws in players he didn’t like, and accentuating the small positives of the guys he did like. Without naming names, there are 5-10 players in the system who are on their 4th, 5th and 6thchances with the Mets…why then are so many not even given that first chance? And I know your response is that some guys just aren’t meant to be big leaguers, but for every failed Mets prospect during this most recent tenure that was given every opportunity to succeed and failed, I feel like there are just as many kids who could have developed into the Joe McEwing’s or David Eckstein’s of the world but just weren’t given their 100 at bats to prove it

Forgive me if any of my writing is whiny and sounds like its coming from a bitter ex minor leaguer…i assure you, that is not my intention. I just think there are some fundamental flaws in the player development approach that Tony employed, or at least helped oversee

Matt:I see your point about Bernzard’s and co.’s intimidation and assertion of authority a lot better now. If anything, it hurts pd.

One question though: What do you think Bernazard’s criteria is for playing favorites? Why does he favor certain players when the talent difference is negligible? Do you think this was about him angling for power?

Teddy:  In response to your question, any answer I give would only be speculation and im not exactly the most trusted source…Christ, Adam Rubin knows more about the Mets than anyone and nowadays even he can’t give an opinion without the general manager calling him out…

But I’ll say this. Tony had a clear preference for fellow Puerto Rican born ballplayers. He would toss extra batting practice to them and a handful of the other latin born ballplayers exclusively. He was a big fan of Hector Pellot’s and supposedly he cried when Jose Castro was traded to the Reds in the Jeff Conine deal. I’m not one to pass judgement, but for a guy who is supposed to be impartial and judge ballplayers based on talent and future ability, I would think crying when one of them gets traded is not a good sign for someone who is not supposed to play favorites

Balentien, Evans, and Other Stuff to Look Forward to

The Mets announced today that they are placing Gary Sheffield on the DL retroactive to July 17th. That means Sheffield won’t return until August 2nd, leaving the Mets with a gaping hole in left field the next eight games, including tonight’s contest. In other words, Nick Evans can easily accumulate 30-40 at-bats over that times period. Afterwards. once Sheffield proves himself healthy, the Mets should trade him elsewhere. Perfect. Unfortunately, Omar and Jerry probably prefer “trying to get Fernando Tatis’s bat going” or cash in on their $900,000 investment in Cory Sullivan.

In other news, the Mariners DFA’d Wladimir Balentien. The Mets should look into acquiring him to play center (left, if they really hat Evans that much), or at least stash him in Buffalo. I like Angel Pagan- he has a quick bat and has hit well so far in limited action (.310/.361/.425). Like the Francoeur move, however, if Balentien can untap his potential, it can pay huge dividends for the Mets.

Last year, Balentien made his major league debut with Seattle and hit .202/.250/.342 in 260 plate appearances. His xBABIP was .306. This year, in 170 plate appearances,he has hit  .213/.271/.355. ZIPS does not project him to hit all that better the rest of the way (.703 OPS). His plate discipline is more or less the same as Jeff Francoeur’s, and his fielding is terrible.

Still, he’s got less than 400 at-bats under his belt in the big leagues. He is also just two years removed from mashing AAA and being rated the Mariners number five prospect. Like most young hitters, he can hit a fastball a mile, but struggles with off-speed stuff.  We are not going to see the likes of Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, or Fernando Martinez until September, so there is no reason not to try and strike gold with him. I’m guessing  he’ll cost something of similar value (Lance Broadway?) or a C-level prospect (Mike Antonini, Sean Ratliff, etc.), but nothing the Mets should lose sleep over.

Fernando Nieve to DL; Cory Sullivan to Bigs

Not much to say about Nieve.  His peripherals were terrible, and if it weren’t for his Jorge Sosa esque first couple of starts, Jon Niese would already be here. Still, he has never really gotten a fair shake in the big leagues (just 143.2 career innings), and has the stuff to make him a serviceable reliever or starter elsewhere. Best of luck to him.

Taking his place will be Cory Sullivan. Sullivan, a seventh round pick for the Rockies back in 2001, is yet another player in the Angel Pagan/Jeremy Reed mold. It’s mind-boggling enough to watch this team’s free-fall. To watch them lose with just two players (Daniel Murphy and Jeff Francoeur), who have any reasonable chance of improving is becoming more boring by the day . No wonder why so many average fans seem psyched about Niese’s performance lately.

What’s more interesting is why Sullivan got the nod over Nick Evans. Jerry Manuel’s argument that Sullivan is “more versatile” than Evans in bunk.  This year, Sullivan, a natural center fielder, has played center almost exclusively for the Bisons. In fact, over his entire major league career (355 games), he has played just 27 games in left and 14 in right. In six seasons in the minors, he played just 47 in right and 57 in left. Since 2007, he played a grand total of eight games in the corner outfield spots. Glancing over his defensive stats, he is not particularly good in the outfield period. 

This tells me that the Mets think Gary Sheffield should be back any day now, and don’t want to take the trouble to promote Evans and send him down before Saturday (when Niese will start).  If the Mets once again (purposely or not) underestimated Sheffield’s injury, however, this costs Evans another oppurtunity in the majors for a team that is more or less done and needs to find out about its’ young talent.